Here we have Ken Pomeroy writer for Basketball Prospectus. His first book, College Basketball Prospectus 2008-09, will hit bookstores on October 28th. Just look at the high praise from his blurb on Amazon:

Ken Pomeroy is routinely described on college hoop blogs as the Bill James of college basketball. Ken was a writer for ESPN and his work has been cited in Sports Illustrated, The New York Times, and The Washington Post.

You can get it on Amazon, or if you like BP and Baseball Prospectus go to their redirect, or at your local bookstore. So let’s kick off some questions!

Siena Saints Blog: It seems like just yesterday we were talking about the first Old Spice Classic, the MAAC sponsored non-conference tournament, that showcased Marist in their first win over a Big Ten school. Of course the coach of that school would, after the trip, resign…  Siena won’t face the prospect of that going up against Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee Volunteers in game one (Noon/ESPN2) and following that up against either Wichita State/Georgetown Friday, will this Thanksgiving weekend be feast or famine for the Saints?

Ken Pomeroy, Basketball Prospectus/Kenpom.com: So you’re saying Minnesota fans have Jared Jordan and Matt Brady to thank for Tubby Smith leading them back to respectability (or possibly more)? It’s funny how college hoops works like that.

Anyway, it’s never too early to firm up those holiday plans, and if you’re headed to Grandma’s house for Turkey Day, it’s worth making sure that there will be a private room set aside with access to ESPN2HD. I think that first game between Siena and Tennessee is captivating whether one has a rooting interest in it or not. You have one team which will be highly ranked and another which has legitimate aspirations to put together an at-large resume, which is saying something considering the conference they’re in. Plus, Siena will be willing to run with UT, so it won’t bore grandma.

Your readers surely know more about Siena than I do, so I’ll just say that I don’t expect Tennessee to be much different than last season. Occasionally, they’ll look like one of the best teams in the country, and occasionally they’ll struggle to look like a top 25 team. They have a bunch of exciting newcomers to go along with JP Prince, Tyler Smith, and Wayne Chism, so it’s probably best to catch them in November and not March.

How crazy would it be if Siena knocked off Wichita State in the second round? The cruel chain of events that sent Dan Monson packing eventually led to a coaching vacancy in Wichita the following offseason and the Shockers have struggled making the transition to a new coach. It would be like the MAAC is single-handedly taking down a program.

Given the field in this tourney, Siena would have to feel great about coming up with two wins somehow. If they do that, they’ll start to get some overdue attention beyond MAAC beat writers.

SSB: Would you evaluate the MAAC as a mid-major or a low major conference?

Pomeroy: We’re delving into the land of arbitrary distinctions and I try not to spend too much time trying to label things. There’s a million ways to rank conferences or establish their “goodness”.  I think just about any one you pick would have the MAAC in the bottom half of D-I, perhaps on the edge of the bottom third. I mean, on the one hand the conference has a couple of non play-in game tournament wins this decade. On the other, their champ was placed in the play-in game just two seasons ago. And although it was a horrible decision to put Niagara in that game, just being considered for it says something. Were I the MAAC commissioner, I might borrow Dan Hawkins’ line for a conference motto. “It’s Division I basketball! It’s the MAAC! It ain’t intramurals!” That about sums it up.

SSB: If you were on the NCAA Selection Committee (we might have a better field), but if you were, what would you use as criteria to select teams to the NCAA Tournament? What tools do you think they favor more and which would you favor more?

Pomeroy: If I was on the committee I would be criticized as not being a “basketball person” and would probably find myself in the corner of the meeting room talking to myself. In general my criteria wouldn’t be any different than the committee’s – find the best teams. What determines that should be fairly easy to figure. If it’s offensive rebounding in the last 5 minutes of the game, then let’s use that. Realistically, it’s probably not that complicated. Recent research suggests that road performance is pretty important. Not simply road wins, but playing well on the road, be it a close loss to a great team or lopsided wins against lesser foes. As far as what the committee does, I don’t think they are nearly as analytical as I am (who is?), but in general they agree with the notion that the quality of a team goes beyond simple wins and losses. A team can play very well and lose, and likewise play poorly and win.

SSB: We are in a season of change with the new three point line, if you can change THREE things in the state of college basketball, what would you change and why?

Pomeroy:

1. Get rid of the play-in game and remove an at-large bid from the field. I mean, I don’t really know anyone who’s passionate about the play-in game.

2. Reduce the number of timeouts for each team to three. Anything to reduce the number of stoppages towards the end of the game, but also to discourage coaches from stopping the game every time the opponent goes on 6-0 run.

3. We need a more consistent view of intentional fouls. The end-of-game foul parade is not an attractive part of the game and clearly most of these fouls would be ruled intentional were they committed at other times in the game. I’d like to see that cleaned up.

SSB: If you had to put a percentage down on each game: Siena picking up a win @ Kansas, @ St. Joes or @ Pittsburgh? And then % of one of the 3.

Pomeroy:
Kansas: 5%
St. Joe’s 30%
Pitt 5%.

That would give them a 37% chance of winning at least one of those.

SSB: Do you think we will ever be able to measure the effects of transfers coming down from larger conferences into mid/low major conferences?

Pomeroy: Oh sure. There’s enough data out there to do it now, so maybe that’s an idea for next season’s book. One limitation is that a player taking a step down usually hasn’t played many minutes at the higher level. Subjectively, it appears to me that some things transfer well, like usage, rebounding and blocks, regardless if you’re moving down or up. What is affected most is the efficiency stats like field goal percentage and turnovers. Louie McCroskey’s year at Marist seems to confirm that.

SSB: One of the teams I still think has been a real good dark horse these last 2 years has been Fairfield, it seems like we have talked about them being a real contender for the conference title…

Pomeroy: I think that’s a reasonable goal for them, not that I would expect it of course. To challenge Siena they would have to significantly improve their defense.  Their offense is going to cause a ton of problems for MAAC opponents.

SSB: Give me a MAAC top 3 if you had to choose today…

Pomeroy: Siena, Rider, Fairfield. I’m really interested to see how Rider does without Thompson. On the one had, the guy had a tremendous combination of shot-blocking and rebounding ability, so you’d think the defense would take a hit. But Rider’s D stunk two seasons ago in Thompson’s junior season, so maybe his influence isn’t as much as people might think.

SSB: So, Marist, the cupboard was left pretty bare.. I’m afraid to ask what you think of them

Pomeroy: Let’s say 8-10 in the league. Too bad Jay Gavin got away. With him, Marist would have had one of the best backcourts in the league.

SSB: Okay, a few national questions: What do you think of Tom Crean heading to Indiana? Can he restore the tainted legacy?

Pomeroy: I’ll always give Crean the benefit of the doubt because one year at Marquette, he (or someone on his staff) made sure that rebounding percentages were listed at the end of the official box score that the school produced. A man with that kind of outside-the-box thinking is destined for success. The early returns are looking favorable for the Hoosiers and really, it’s Indiana. A coach with some experience running a major program would have to work hard, or make a bunch of illegal phone calls, to screw it up.

SSB: Who is your National Title Darkhorse…

Pomeroy: Good question, because any pick besides UNC is a darkhorse. For a mild shocker, I’ll take Texas. For an out-of-the-blue contender, I’m intrigued by Wake Forest. A trio of big freshmen coming in and a returning core that should improve offensively.

SSB: College Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009 comes out October 28th, your name is on the cover among others. What are we going to find in this 336 page book? Already #16,920 in books on Amazon (as of October 7th) but who’s counting…

Pomeroy: Ah, yes. I thought we were never going to get to that. With this kind of publicity, the book can get into the top 15,000. (Ed. Note: It is now #12,508 in books) My commercial goes like this…The book will contain the kind of content that fans have found at Basketball Prospectus for the past year. Gasaway and I have put together in-depth previews for each team in the power conferences and some content on the other top conferences that can be expected to send multiple teams to the tournament. There’s another section with more general content about the game including some insight from Kevin Pelton, Will Carroll, and John Perrotto, And even though there are plenty of stats that you won’t find anywhere else, except possibly at kenpom.com, you don’t need a Ph.D. in Math to get a lot out of this book. The analysis is of the kind that won’t be found in another preview at your bookstore.

SSB: What else can we look forward to on Basketball Prospectus for this year? Also who else collaborated on the books content and will continue to write there?

Pomeroy: I’m really excited about our eight-part series on what makes Tyler Hansbrough the hardest worker in the game today. Seriously, though, it’s hard to know what you’ll see this season. Basically, we react to events that happen during the season so we’ll just have to wait and see. The cast is pretty much the same as last season, except I’ll be doing less writing due to a number of other commitments I have over the next few months. But the site will still have the kind of analysis you can’t get at other sites.

SSB: Great stuff Ken, it’s always interesting picking your brain about college hoops. Best of luck with the release of the book.

Pomeroy: Thank you Ryan, take care.

There you have it. Go Buy Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009 on October 28th.