Year One: Rebuild.
Year Two: Be Inconsistently Consistent.
Year Three: Contention.

SSB: One of the teams I still think has been a real good dark horse these last 2 years has been Fairfield…
Pomeroy: I think that’s a reasonable goal for them, not that I would expect it of course. To challenge Siena they would have to significantly improve their defense. Their offense is going to cause a ton of problems for MAAC opponents.
One on One: Ken Pomeroy

Fairfield has the chance to be one of the most intriguing teams in the MAAC this season. Their offense has progressed to better numbers in the Ed Cooley era, however their defense has fallen to the bottom third of the NCAA in advanced categories. If you use the Kenpom ratings for Fairfield, these are the prespectives you get from the past two years:

2007: This is a team that can score, takes a fair amount of threes, turns the ball over 22% of the time but also grabs a lot of offensive boards. They might get you to turn it over but you will be able to score on them almost at will. 4 win improvement.

2008: This is a team that can really shoot it. They are a good offense that excels in rebounding on the offensive end and making threes. You can beat them inside the three point line and you should be able to control the ball against them. 1 win improvement.

In 19 of Fairfield’s 30 games last year, the opponent shot 50% eFG% or better. Teams posted efficiency scores over 118 in 9 out of those 30 games. In other words, the Fairfield defense made the opponent look like the 2008 Duke Blue Devils when they were on the court.

Fairfield’s major knock is that they are inconsistently consistent. The easy word for it might be streaky.

Last Season

Fairfield in 08: Lose 2, Win 2, Lose 6, Win 1, Lose 1, Win 2, Lose 3, Win 2, Lose 2, Win 7, Lose 2.

When Fairfield lost 6 in a row, they turned the ball over 3 times against Georgetown when the game before the team turned the ball over 19 times against Saint Francis (NY). Yet this is the same team that did something the New England Patriots couldn’t do: go undefeated in February. When you look at all the Pomeroy stats here is the comparison of that early Fairfield streak to the 7 game win month. Let’s see if we can find anything:

The offense went from being one of the lower 3rd Offenses in the NCAA to one of the best in the country. The defense went from being one of the worst 20 defenses in the country, to one in the 270 range. That type of improvement which included better free throw rates on both ends precipitated a team that could win 7 games by an average of 7.5 points.

However let’s try to take out these 13 games and see if we can find any difference in Fairfield in the overall categories. And compare them against Fairfield’s overall season numbers.

The two teams look relatively the same. Except that the team that didn’t streak got to the free throw line more often. The team endured a six game losing streak and a seven game win streak while playing most of their games outside of those streaks like the team they were all season. In other words, they are who we thought they were. This is a team with a good offense but a bottom of the barrel defense which will need some help from the three freshmen big men who are coming onto the program.

One of the huge keys to this season will be Junior F Anthony Johnson who led the team on the boards should see an increase in minutes and effectiveness. A rebound in F Greg Nero‘s numbers would help as well:

Mystery Fairfield Player

Player A is Nero in ’07 and Player B is Nero in ’08. You wouldn’t tell by his on the court play since he regressed in scoring, Nero went from 9.4 ppg in 07 to 8.4 ppg in 08. The Junior improved modestly in advanced offensive categories and by about a rebound per game, but that was on a team where he did not lead them in rebounding. Nero’s freshman year he had Marty O’Sullivan picking up a freakishly high 5.6 rpg and Mike Van Schaick picking up 126 rebounds. Nero’s big year might show up this year, for Fairfield’s sake they will need it to become the true offensive force they can be. Cooley thinks that we could see that step taken by Nero this year:

“He’s had some health issues with his nasal blockage, but he’s better. Greg’s had a lot of experience. He’s been in a lot of situations, had a lot of minutes. It’s now time for him to put it together.”
- Ed Cooley on Greg Nero.
Fairfield Blue Ribbon Preview

If Nero cannot step up, expect for some of his playing time to be given to Freshman Forward Brandon Davis, the Greenville, SC product was ranked 44th out of the top 50 centers in the country by ESPN.

Fun Fact

Cooley, the Providence, Rhode Island native, won two Rhode Island High School Player of the Year awards for Basketball before attending Stonehill College.

Schedule

They will be challenged and have never backed down from playing tough non-conference games. They will open at Memphis and then come back home to play nearby rival Sacred Heart before heading to Puerto Rico. The Puerto Rico Tip Off will feature at least two matchups that include the opener against Virginia Tech and a game against either Missouri or Xavier. Other non-conference matchups will include Patriot League foes American, Army and Holy Cross; a trip to UConn and playing against Drexel and at Fordham.

Siena will ring in the new year with a home matchup against Fairfield and 16 days after the Saints will be welcomed into the Arena at Harbor Yard.

I think we are looking at a very good Fairfield team here: good enough to be third in the MAAC. If this was the team that could get home court advantage for the MAAC tournament they would be a real threat to win the conference title. Last year, Fairfield shot eFG% of 54.1 at home but only went 7-6. The main reason? their opponents shot eFG% of 51.7%. If they can stop someone this season, they will be a real threat. When they defend, they should be able to beat up on the lower half of the conference. They have shown they can beat Siena as a team, both teams combined for five turnovers in the final minute. I think optimism and Cooley’s first season over .500 overall and third straight over .500 MAAC record should be a mild expectation. With a little more luck, this team could see postseason play: hopefully for Siena fans they hope that means the College Basketball Invitational.

[* - See what these ratings mean.]