Yesterday, friend of the blog Kyle Whelliston was invited to participate in a mock NCAA selection committee to compile. If you haven’t already, head on over to midmajority.com and read his post on the day. It gives phenomenal insight as to what the day is really like for the actual committee and explains how they made their decisions on At Large teams and others. Here are some cool things I learned,

• The most prominent two stats (the first ones committee members see) are Average RPI Win and Average RPI Loss
• It takes just as long to make it as it does to play it.
• [On] L12, or RPI, or strength of schedule–
  

  Slive said that it’s a personal preference from one committee member to the next. Given that each of the 10 is human, each has spent individual basketball lifetimes building a different set of personal preferences as to what’s important. This process a collective and subjective decision, he said, based on consensus. “No single category qualifies or disqualifies a team.”

Now, in this simulation, Fairfield was computer calculated to win the MAAC (I think we can all agree that’s ridiculous, but give it a break– it’s a computer) and Siena was simulated to lose in the conference championship.

Siena was the last team in, receiving a 12 seed and slated to face UCLA in Boise, ID. Yikes that trip again! For what it’s worth, the last team to win the conference two consecutive years [Manhattan 03-04] was rewarded a 12 seed in their second-go-round.

Download: PDF

Siena didn’t know it, but its fate hung on the Big Ten game between Michigan State and Minnesota. If Michigan State (an at-large team) won, Siena was in. If Minnesota, not in the at-large pool, emerged victorious, the Gophers would jump up out of the abyss and take the last spot, leaving the Saints in the NIT.

So it was us or a Big Ten team– that sounds like people give Siena respect.

I myself have said that I think it’s highly unlikely that Siena gets an At Large bid in March, but hey– it can happen. That being said I still don’t trust leaving it up to the committee on the final day– and I think this mock proves that my fear is valid. There is no doubt Siena has built a legitmate On The Bubble resume, whether or not it will hold up, appears to be dependent on how other teams preform. There is one easy solution, Siena goes 4-0 from March 1st – March 9th.