Northern Iowa heads to Siena wondering if it can get back on track. Since this matchup was announced at around 5pm on Februrary 2nd, Northern Iowa has gone 2-4 which includes a 21 turnover, 47-46, loss to Drake. The fact that Jordan Eglseder, UNI’s leading scorer, missed two free throws which would have given them the win is even more concerning.

Now, instead of looking like the hot shooting 1 loss Valley team, they share first place with Creighton in what is increasingly looking like a one-bid conference this year. This Northern Iowa team looks a lot like another team when you compare how they get their points. They look a lot like another team in the MAAC:

UNI scores just under 50% from 2 pointers and likes to shoot the three. UNI shoots a lot better from three than Niagara (34.5% to 31.3%) but tends to shoot a lot of them, again similar to Niagara. Niagara puts up about 39% of their shots from behind the new arc while UNI puts up 37%.  This makes the schedule interesting because Siena will have to defend the perimeter in this game against Northern Iowa and then take that up to Western New York.

Siena has lost six games, four of them to superior out of conference opponents. Northern Iowa has dropped two games to even local major conference opponents in Iowa State and Iowa. In fact, the recent 21 turnover output is more mind-boggling when you find that UNI turned it over three times in a 71-66 loss to Iowa State. One reason Northern Iowa could have lost that game was going 6 for 32 from 3-point range, that’s 18%. Northern Iowa has shot 38% from three in road or neutral games, that’s not bad.

Siena likes to play up tempo games, where the number of possessions are in the 70s and over. Northern Iowa has grinded out eleven games at under 60 possessions. Compare that type of pace to Siena who hasn’t played in more than one game under 60 possessions in ANY of the last six years. They played a 59 possession game at home against St. Peter’s, a 65-52 January victory. But then again, Siena is a freakishly high tempo team and at home love to show off their high scorers.

Northern Iowa has also been plagued by inconsistency in the non-conference. Other than their major conference losses, UNI lost to Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming on the road. Their only non-conference win is a neutral game win at Auburn by six.

Bottom line: Northern Iowa doesn’t generate turnovers and Siena takes care of the ball real well. They like to get teams to fire outside the three point arc, the Saints like to play within the arc. Northern Iowa won’t generate many blocks either but has a size advantage. Even with that, you would have to expect the Saints to pound it inside. If UNI wants to get into a 3-point arc battle, Clarence Jackson will certainly be ready for them but Siena should use its better play from inside the arc to take down the Panthers. But of course, teams that get hot from the outside are the types that can give the Saints a scare. Expect a competitive game but Siena should defend its undefeated home record this season.

Mid-Majority has put up a new Selection Sheet for individual teams, based on their mock selection committee.
Selection Sheets: Northern Iowa Siena

Northern Iowa
average RPI win: 158
average RPI loss: 129

Siena
average RPI win: 158
average RPI loss: 66

* – all stats are courtesy Kenpom.com & through games of 2/18/08)