Anthony Macri writes a Basketball Prospectus Unfiltered piece saying the Saints need to execute 3 keys:

1.) Ronald Moore controls tempo, turnovers and shot selection
2.) The Saints get production from everyone on the floor throughout the game, preventing the Cardinals from focusing their pressure on just one or two players
3.) Siena forces Louisville to work for points in the halfcourt, challenging shots and controlling the defense glass

There are some good points in this post on how Louisville is upset prone:

Louisville is a team that relies on creating opportunities to score with its defense.  If a team is somehow able limit its turnovers and convert a decent (not necessarily an excellent) percentage of its shots, Louisville could experience some problems scoring in the halfcourt.  Look back at their early season loss to Western Kentucky–a team that is built very similar to Siena, by the way–and see what happens to Louisville when their defense isn’t brilliant.