Before we get the announcement and before everyone acknowledges a Butler-Siena collision course, let’s look at a few potential BracketBuster matchups. Butler, Utah State and (sleeper) George Mason this time with more BracketBuster potentials and analysis to come! Ratings courtesy of Kenpom.com.

(68) Siena Saints @ (27) Butler Bulldogs
Why this would be a good matchup? Well Andy Katz lobbied for this matchup in a blog post this week. Katz said:

It’s essentially Butler or bust.

If the Saints can win this week, there’s a very good chance the Saints will be Butler’s opponent in the highest-profile BracketBusters game.

Another reason this might be a good matchup? It will be a chance for both teams to earn a statement win. Butler has two big home wins over an Evan Turner-less Ohio State and Xavier but did not get any of their statement road wins against UAB, Georgetown, Clemson or Minnesota. Siena is in that same predicament, losing to three of their four games to teams that have been ranked this year. Plus both the Times Union and Indianapolis Star have called for this matchup.

Why this might be bad? Butler is 37-3 over the last three years at home heading into this week. The Bulldogs shoot 51.1% from inside the arc, good for 59th in the nation. Gordon Heyward and Shelvin Mack both score over 15 points per game and are tough three-point threats. Add on top of that a good defense that generates a lot of turnovers and plays at a much slower pace than Siena and the Saints could be in for a real fight on the road.
Who to keep an eye on? Matt Howard went for a season-high 23 in Butler’s loss to Minnesota earlier this year. Howard is a scorer at the forward spot but has fouled out of seven of the Bulldogs games this season, including all three of their four losses (4 fouls against Clemson). Siena will have its hands full containing him but the Bulldogs might have their hands full with Ryan Rossiter and Alex Franklin.
Chances of this one happening? 40%. I’m never to say it’s a sure thing but the reason that everyone thinks it must happen might give the impression that it won’t.

(68) Siena Saints @ (28) Utah State Aggies
Why this would be a good matchup? Utah State is only one of two teams to beat BYU this season by 10, that’s their signature win. They lost to common-opponent Northeastern on the road but have rebounded from an 0-2 conference start to win six straight entering this week.
Why this might be bad? Utah State has one of the country’s most efficient offenses and, likely, one of the best Siena will face this year. The Aggies shoot 41.8% from three point range, good for 5th in the nation. Combine that with a 2-point field goal percentage comparable (51.2) to Siena’s (51.5%) and the 7th best free throw shooting percentage in the country (76.3%), this is a team Siena cannot afford to fall behind to quickly. Not only that but the Aggies have won their last six home games by double-digits or more, an average margin of 26 points in the six wins.
Who to keep an eye on? Jared Quayle shoots 46% from three point range and has made a three pointer in all but two games this year. Quayle started out hot with a season-high performance in a loss to Utah, scoring 27 and grabbing 11 rebounds. The 6′1″ senior shoots 91.1% from the free throw line. Tai Wesley is another player to keep an eye on. Wesley leads the Aggies with 13.3 points per game and will be a tough inside presence for the Saints to defend.
Chances of this one happening? 25%. I think the national interest would be better served by this game, Siena has traveled west to play BracketBuster games (Boise State) and done well, and the matchup of very good offenses would make for a great show to watch.

SLEEPER PICK
(68) Siena Saints @ (135) George Mason Patriots
Why this would be a good matchup? Who would not love the green and gold battling the green and gold on a national stage? Mason, the ultimate Cinderella story that carried to the Final Four, is a much different team which starts four sophomores and one junior. Mason is 8-1 at home this year and that includes their best win: a 16 point win over Old Dominion.
Why this might be bad? The Patriots play three tough games before the BracketBuster against Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion and William & Mary. This will either mean the Patriots are an impressive contender or they will be a limping opponent like Northern Iowa last year. At the time of the announcement, the Panthers were in the midst of a 11-game win streak, but they lost three of their last four heading into the Siena game and could not keep up with the Saints in Albany.
Who to keep an eye on? Cam Long is a stud. The junior guard is finally establishing his presence on the Patriots, racking up 20+ in the last three games. Long and Alex Franklin shared ECAC Player of the Week honors last week.
Chances of this happening? 10%. It’s a sleeper pick for a reason but I think this matchup would be more attractive than going to play at Virginia Commonwealth.