While you’re having lunch, a lot has happened and there are a lot of articles to look at in advance of Siena-Purdue on Friday afternoon. We’ve traded Q&A’s, everyone is analyzing Purdue without Robbie Hummel, plus good news for Kenny Hasbrouck and news from Fran McCaffery.
We were honored to join a Q&A with Hammer & Rails and catch our thoughts on the Saints-Boilermakers matchup on their site! We will have their Q&A with us soon, don’t worry!
From Dan Hanner at Yet Another Basket Blog, who runs the numbers and gets a surprising result from his recent piece called “The Hummel Effect“:
I promised some comments about which region is the toughest ect, but first I have to tackle another question. What does it mean for Purdue that Robbie Hummel is out? If you watched on Saturday, it doesn’t look good.
I attempted to recreate Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense with and without Hummel. (One minor issue that I’m going to ignore. Ken puts some additional weight on recent games and I don’t know the exact methodology.) But weighting all games equally, here is how Purdue has performed with and without Hummel:
With Hummel (27 games)
Adj Off Eff 114.3
Adj Def Eff 86.4
Pythag Winning Perc = .9615Without Hummel (5 games)
Adj Off Eff 94.7
Adj Def Eff 85.6
Pythag Winning Perc = .7622Odds of beating Siena with Hummel: 82%
Odds of beating Siena without Hummel: 37%
Current odds on kenpom.com: 74%
ESPN’s College Basketball Nation, who picked up our story on March 6th, picked up the story as well and offered their analysis:
It’s worth noting that the sample size of Purdue games without Hummel is obviously much smaller than the sample with him in the lineup, and that Minnesota game was so bad that it might qualify for outlier status, bringing the whole batch of “without Hummel” numbers down much further than they rightfully belong. But still. The game happened. These numbers are what they are. Robbie Hummel was incredibly important for Purdue, maybe even more important than any of us thought — and we were freaking out when he got hurt. Imagine how Purdue fans must feel.
Meanwhile in Siena news, former Saint Kenny Hasbrouck is close to signing with the Heat.
Fran McCaffery voted many of his former opponents of this season higher than anyone in the nation in the USA Today Top 25 poll.
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