John Gasaway, an expert on the Big Ten and much more at Basketball Prospectus, offers us his thoughts on the NCAA Tournament matchup between Purdue and Siena. He offers up his thoughts on Purdue, their man-to-man defense against the Saints and what to watch for Friday.
Siena Saints Blog: How would you profile Purdue without Robbie Hummel?

John Gasaway: Anemic offense and diminished defensive rebounding, which has resulted in a reliance on creating opponent turnovers. Which Purdue is quite good at, by the way.

Siena Saints Blog: Is this really a completely different team without Hummel?

John Gasaway: Yes, and in addition to this team’s last four games we also have the more weighty example of 2008-09, when Hummel played much of the season with a back injury.

One irony created by the spread of accurate information and tempo-free stats is that people will sometimes look up Hummel on KenPom and think, what’s the big deal? This guy actually doesn’t use that many possessions. Well, chalk up one for grumpy old guys who talk about “upside,” fear numbers, and tout “the eye test.” This time they nailed it. When he’s not on the floor, opposing defenses have had little difficulty playing five-on-two against JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. With this core of Purdue personnel–which, incredibly, has been together now for three seasons–Hummel is catalytic.

Siena Saints Blog: How good is Purdue’s man-to-man defense? Will this be something the Saints have never seen before in the half court?

John Gasaway: It’s excellent, yes, and even guys you haven’t heard of–e.g., Kelsey Barlow–are a real nuisance to opposing ball-handlers. But as alluded to above, one of Hummel’s hidden talents was that he was Purdue’s best defensive rebounder. The Boilers’ first-shot D is quite good and they’re still creating lots of turnovers, but there are new opportunities available for opponents on the offensive glass.

Siena Saints Blog: Who will have to step up for Purdue in Hummel’s absence?

John Gasaway: E’Twaun Moore. It’s time for him to pretend he’s Devan Downey, never let go of the ball, and resolve that he will either draw a foul, score, or both. Thing is, that is just so un-Big Ten-like.

When you have multiple threats on the floor, a Big Ten-style motion offense can be a thing of beauty. In fact Purdue was quite effective offensively, albeit misunderstood, when Hummel was healthy this year. But when you have just one or two legitimate threats and the rest are role players, watching this type of offense can be kind of like sitting in a committee meeting at 9:30 on a weeknight. Get to the bloody point. Have Moore and Johnson run a pick-and-roll already.

Siena Saints Blog: What’s the matchup you want to keep your eye on?

John Gasaway: Where to begin. Franklin vs. Johnson, Ubiles and Jackson on offense vs. Barlow and Chris Kramer on D, I’ll be there. I wouldn’t expect Siena’s 1-2-2 press to create a lot of turnovers with this group.

His prediction on the game will be coming up in our predictions piece later this week featuring writers and columnists from around the nation with their take on Friday’s game.