So Siena has been the top team the previous three years in the preseason MAAC polls, until now.

Farifield gets to claim the top spot for 2010-11 and will seek to be the fourth straight pre-season number one team to win a trip to the NCAA Tournament. The last preseason number one team to lose the conference championship was Marist in 2006-07 when they lost in the semifinals to Siena.

The Saints, now having to look up to Fairfield in the poll, will have to see where they fit in the group of contenders to dethrone the Stags in 2010-11. How will they stack up against St. Peter’s and Iona, the teams picked third and fourth in the conference respectively. St. Peter’s picked up one first-place vote while the Saints picked up three of the ten votes. Fairfield collected the other six. How will the Saints hold off two young, explosive teams in the Peacocks and the Gaels?

Siena will be looking to make history: if they can make the NCAA tournament, they will be the first team to four-peat in the MAAC.

Before you etch the 2010-11 preseason standings in stone and wait until March: understand a few things about the past three years of preseason predictions and polls:

• Siena has been predicted correctly each of the last three seasons. Each year the Saints were selected to win, and won.
• Other than the Saints, of all 30 predicted places, 19 finished in different spots other than their preseason poll rank for a total of 63.3%.
• The best places for movement? The MAAC preseason poll has not predicted correctly any of these places: 2nd, 4th, 8th and 9th place
• The MAAC preseason poll has correctly predicted Marist’s finish each of the last 3 years: 5th, 10th and 10th over the last three years.

Taking the last three years of data of preseason favorites and conference regular season performance. There is a lot of interesting data that might suggest who is really looking ready to go come 2010-11.

THE CURSE OF SECOND-PLACE?

The second place team in the preseason MAAC poll has not finished there since Niagara did in 2006-07 who went on to win the MAAC Tournament in Bridgeport. Each of the last three teams picked to finish behind the Saints in the preseason: Loyola in 2007-08, Fairfield in 2008-09 and Niagara in 2009-10 respectively, have finished no better than 4th in the conference.

Where does this put the Saints, who have an extra set of variables which include filling the void of an extremely successful senior class, a new coach and new roles for players. We will see if new coach Mitch Buonaguro can rally this new look Saints team to a second-place finish in conference.

IONA UNDER WILLARD: OVER PERFORMERS

Even though Kevin Willard has left Iona and gone on to Seton Hall, Tim Cluess will be inheriting a group of players that have managed to exceed expectations each season Willard coached them. Willard went 45-49 at Iona but 27-27 in conference play and met or beat his preseason predicted ranking every season. Last season Iona made their jump, being picked 9th and eventually finishing in 3rd place. Stacking the total amount of “points” in the coaches poll each team has received over the past three years, Iona has consistently outperformed in conference play with their win percentage.

*last three seasons

That’s right. Iona, whose amassed only the seventh most amount of points over the past three pre-seasons has the second best win percentage in league play! Meanwhile Rider has amassed the third most amount of points and ranks seventh in win percentage. If you needed another reason to be sold on Iona, their 6-3 road record last year and young core present a ton of upside even with a new coach.

The only teams that hit their win percentage and points total were Siena (1st), Manhattan (6th) and Canisius (8th).

LOYOLA: UNDER PERFORMERS

Loyola has won 25 conference games over the last three years; however, that might be a disappointment for Greyhounds fans.

After a 19-14 2007-08, the Greyhounds have been 15-37 over the last two years which includes a 13-23 record in conference play. After rattling off a four game win streak which included a win at Indiana, the Greyhounds only won back-to-back games once more (February 5th and 7th) last season. If Jimmy Patsos’ team can stay healthy, they are expected to contend – however they are slotted in 6th place that could allow them to exceed expectations.

WHAT IT MIGHT TAKE TO WIN

In order to win the conference, how many wins will it take?

In the last seven seasons, five regular season champions have won 14 games or more. Taking the last seven conference seasons (2003-04 to 2009-10 season) into account and you get about 6th place as the level between .500 teams and teams under .500.

If Siena were pegged to finish second this year, then the Saints should win about 11-13 conference games. Is that a realistic number? Potentially when you include Siena’s ongoing tremendous home court advantage, one of the best streaks in the nation entering the 2010-11 season. However if the Saints win range is expected more in the 10-12 area, expect a third or fourth place finish in the regular season.

Another note to suggest the double-bye for the regular season champion should come back. The average amount of wins the first place team is better than the second place team has been 1.6 games.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR?

Last year’s preseason poll put Niagara and Ryan Thompson and the Rider Broncs as the teams that could catch Siena during the 2009-10 season. Do we remember what happened to both of them?

Suffice it to say, they were passed by Fairfield, Iona and St. Peter’s a group that scored a combined 142 points in the preseason poll. Rider came out of the preseason looking great; however their win over Mississippi State appeared to be the aberration of the season as they struggled to win in conference play. Niagara played good basketball in the non conference, going 9-6, but could not replicate it in the conference season. Niagara won just three times, one of which was over Iona in the conference tournament, against MAAC teams whose conference records were over .500. Of those three wins, the other two of them were at home. Meanwhile Iona mad its name with a top notch defense, Fairfield made its name with sensational play by veterans and newcomer Derek Needham while St. Peter’s made their case by having one of the best defenses in the NCAA – ranking first in the nation in effective Field goal percentage defense (42.8 eFG%).

To put it in perspective, every team except Siena, Canisius and Marist landed in a different spot than they were ranked in the preseason.

So maybe Saints fans shouldn’t put much stock into the preseason number two rating.

If you like this… We recommend as well these:
Roster Attrition by Conference – Ken Pomeroy on Kenpom.com blog
ESPN.com MAAC Preview – ESPN.com College Basketball blog

“The challenge is just to keep the program where it is,” Siena first-year coach Mitch Buonaguro said. “We’ve been the best team in the league the last three years.

Read into that quote what you will, but he’s got to be tempering expectations a bit. Mitch is a great recruiter, and if he can keep the same talent level that was brought in under Fran, we should be able to be a top program in the conference.

1. Fairfield (6)
2. Siena (3)
3. Saint Peter’s (1)
4. Iona
5. Rider
6. Loyola
7. Canisius
8. Niagara
9. Manhattan
10. Marist

The 31st ranked Siena Saints in the AP Poll will take on the #23 Butler Bulldogs in one of the toughest places to play in college basketball as part of ESPNU’s BracketBusters event in February.

The game will be on Saturday February 20th on ESPN2 at 11am Eastern time.

“I think that everybody looks at Butler as the premier team in the BracketBusters field,” Siena Head Coach Fran McCaffery said during an ESPNU interview as part of the BracketBusters Selection Show.  “It’s a great opportunity for our kids, for our program to play one of the premier teams in the country in a phenomenal facility.”

The Saints will have a tough time keeping a versatile NBA prospect 6’8″ sophomore Gordon Hayward who leads the Bulldogs with 16.1 points per game and just under 8 rebounds per game.

Siena and Butler dominate from the inside. Siena (51.5) and Butler (51.4) are 48th and 51st in two point field goal percentage respectively. Siena and Butler currently have the longest (Saints: 13) and the fourth-longest (Bulldogs: 10) winning streaks in the nation. Butler is 37-3 at home in the last three years.

The Bulldogs get strong play from Matt Howard; however, Howard has fouled out in eight games and in three of the Bulldogs four losses. Butler’s most impressive wins come at home over an Evan Turner-less Ohio State and over Xavier.

Siena has been convincing voters in the AP poll. Seth Davis voted the Saints as his #19 team in the nation. Elton Alexander of the Cleveland Plain Dealer voted the Saints #21. Scott Wolf of the LA Daily News and Nick Jezierny of the Idaho Statesman voted the Saints at #23 while Vahe Gregorian of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch kept the Saints in his poll at #25.

We reached out to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Vahe Gregoran and got his take on the Saints thus far, as the AP pollster who voted the Saints the highest this week at #24, of what he saw in the Saints:

Between Siena’s recent NCAA Tournament track record and the players it had coming back, I had the Saints in my preseason poll at No. 22. When they lost a few games early, I dropped them out. But between the current 11-game winning streak and a number of ranked teams adding blemishes, I wanted to take another look. No, they don’t have any signature wins, but they seem to be hitting stride. And three of their four losses were on the road against teams that are or have been ranked. A lot of teams would have lost those games.

That said, those final four or five teams in the rankings each week are pretty subjective and I saw arguments for nine or 10 teams for the last two spots this week. A lot can change, but I thought Siena deserved the distinction this week.

The subjective flexibility of the bottom votes might explain why people did not vote for the Saints week after week but Siena seems to have staying power in the poll amidst this 11-game win streak. Hopefully the Saints will have a chance to add that signature road win in a potential national TV BracketBuster game.

Gregoran wrote a recap story for the Post-Dispatch on Missouri’s loss on the road to Kansas. What do these two and Siena have in common? Kansas, Siena and Missouri are the top three in home win streaks in the country.

Alex Franklin: Video Corner (SienaSaintsBlog Video)
Loyola @ Siena 1/21 Edwin Ubiles to Alex Franklin
Manhattan @ Siena 1/18 Alex Franklin Jams it Home

The Siena Saints received three points in today’s most recent AP Top 25.

Vahe Gregorian of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch gave Siena’s highest vote this week at #24 and Elton Alexander of the Cleveland Plain Dealer voted Siena as his #25 and Alexander wrote:

Check out Old Dominion, a team playing in a tough mid-major conference (Colonial) that has won nine of its last 10 games. At the very least, a nice bracketbuster opponent for somebody.

Ditto for Siena out of the MAAC. Much like Butler in the Horizon League, the Saints are the big dog in a small conference, currently undefeated in league play and poised to be a NCAA Tournament Cinderella … again.

Siena received 4 votes in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll but it seems the voters are remembering Siena’s reputation as a tournament-experienced tough team. But the Saints needed Edwin Ubiles’ big shot Thursday to keep the winning streak alive.

In a brief bracketbuster preview, Old Dominion cannot play the Saints since both teams are mandated to play road bracketbuster games. Butler, however, is a potential opponent as well as Old Dominion’s CAA other co-leader George Mason. The Saints can’t play the third team tied for the CAA lead, Northeastern. The MAAC currently ranks, in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, as the 15th best conference in the country. Three of the four Siena losses have been to teams that have been ranked this year.

The Indianapolis Star, when not celebrating the Colts win over the Jets, speculates that the Saints might be the Bulldogs opponent in late February:

RPI ratings will fluctuate this week, but major changes would be required to prevent a Butler/Siena pairing. It’s good TV anyway, with teams from different regions represented. Also, this group of Siena Saints has done something these Butler Bulldogs have not — win in the NCAA Tournament. Siena upset Ohio State 74-72 in the first round in 2009 and Vanderbilt 83-62 in the first round in 2008. (Most of the current Bulldogs weren’t on the roster in 2008.)

Siena also appears in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology as a #12 seed against UConn and gives the Saints a 70% chance of remaining in the field of 65. It seems the consensus is around a #12 seed for the Saints but Zach Hayes of RushTheCourt gives Siena a generous #10 seed. A bit of bracket insight: a poor Pac-10 is likely to help the mid-majors cases for at large bids.

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