Siena is 2-5 against the RPI top 100, with the two wins coming at home against Iona (53) and Princeton (99). The Saints are 6-1 against the RPI 101+ at home this season.

Siena’s current ranking in the official NCAA RPI is 183. Their average RPI win is over an average RPI of 196.

If you read Ed’s MAAC Tourney preview, he does pick Siena to win.

For what its worth, at first I didn’t realize you had to refresh, even though he explicitly says to do so in his post. I simulated 10 times, got Niagara as the champion 5 times, Siena 4, and Iona 1.

I think simulations are cool, but overall seeing one simulation doesn’t have much value to me. Accuscore partnered with ESPN.com, and I think they do a good job. (They were right on Niagara). It’s cool to see Ed’s simulator break down an entire tournament, but I think the more valuable statistics come from seeing who finishes in what place in over a large number simulations.

All that behind, Ed’s blog takes an in depth look at statistics. Follow everything Ed does at his Times Union Blog.

Original Post…

Ed Bemiss at his Times Union Sports Rankings Blog has simulated the MAAC and America East tournaments. His MAAC Simulation has the Saints losing in the title game to the Purple Eagles 80-78. Take the simulator with a grain of salt, the simulation had Niagara beating Rider 64-36.

I still think there’s a lot to be said for the potential Rider vs. Niagara matchup in the semis. Rider has already beaten Niagara this year, albeit in Lawrenceville.

Ed is also blogging about killing the RPI. The RPI is a good way to measure teams nationally, similar to the way the SAT is a good way to measure students across America. But that doesn’t make it the be all and end all. I like this post.

What outsiders won’t notice when they look at just the RPI is Siena did exactly what the committee asked, they went on the road and played very tough opponents.

Northern Iowa (18-9) vs. Siena (21-6)
ESPN2, 3:00 PM ET, Saturday
For five weeks Northern Iowa was a huge surprise in the Missouri Valley-maybe even “the Drake of 2009.” Since then, however, the Panthers have lost three of their last four, as coach Ben Jacobson’s formerly efficient offense has begun to sputter. On Wednesday night UNI scored just 46 points in 59 possessions and lost by one at home to instate rival Drake. The Panthers might be struggling, but 7’1″ big man Jordan Eglseder still poses a formidable challenge to opponents at both ends of the court. Eglseder makes 60 percent of his twos and is one of the top defensive rebounders in the nation. Meanwhile Fran McCaffery’s Saints have clinched the MAAC regular season title with a speed that matches the accelerated tempo they show on the court, averaging 72 trips per 40 minutes. With 6’3″ senior Kenny Hansbrouck and 6’6″ junior Edwin Ubiles leading the charge, Siena scores the old-fashioned way, taking care of the ball and making their twos. Also keep an eye on 6-3 sophomore Clarence Jackson, averaging just 15 minutes a game but not at all shy about shooting.

Andy Katz got time to talk to Siena Head Coach Fran McCaffery going into this weekend:

Siena is No. 29 in the latest RPI, with a strength of schedule at 67.

“We’ve put ourselves in position to have a discussion,” McCaffrey said of the Saints. “We did what the committee tells you to do, to play the best teams in conferences and beat a number of them and then we took care of business in our league. We’ve put ourselves in position to be discussed as one of the best teams for the NCAA tournament. We’re right there.”

Raphielle Johnson offers his analysis of all the MAAC Bracket Busters. Did you know Canisius had one of their assistant coaches arrested? Interesting.

Jeff Goodman of FOXSports.com says:

The Saints (No. 29, RPI) played a difficult non-league schedule that resulted in losses to Tennessee, Wichita State and Oklahoma State down in Orlando and also a road loss at Pittsburgh. The team’s résumé win came against a probable NIT team in Saint Joseph’s. A slip-up against Northern Iowa in the BracketBusters could result in an NIT bid for Siena.

As of tonight there were still available tickets. And here’s an in-depth RPI look at the Saints from CBS Sportsline.

There are a lot of other articles out there. Most of them do say though that a loss would siginificantly damage the Saints chances at an at-large bid.

Without Stephen Curry, Davidson lost [convincingly] to Citadel tonight, continuing to lower their resume for an NCAA At Large bid. Butler lost its second straight; 63-60 at the hands of Milwaukee, and will likely drop out of the Top 25 come Monday.

Kansas and Oklahoma State won tonight and Pittsburgh won Monday night against #1 UConn– bettering Siena’s RPI.

It’s safe to say Siena is within the top 5 best Mid Major teams in the country. (Butler, Utah State, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Siena– probably in any order). Saturday will be a true test, but with these top mid majors losing now, expect the national media to start looking other directions, and perking their ears up when they hear the name Siena.

Oh yeah, and Siena is guaranteed at least the NIT. Overall, a pretty good night.

This spot has been reserved for Butler for a while, but the Saints slip past the Bulldogs after Butler’s hiccup. Siena has a healthy No. 28 RPI after six Top 100 wins. Siena gets a shot at a seventh this weekend against Northern Iowa.

Trocchi ranked Siena ahead of Butler, Davidson, Gonzaga and Creighton. He did not mention Utah State who is currently the second best ranked Mid Major team, according to the AP and Coaches polls.

If you haven’t already, head on over to midmajority.com and read his post on the day. It gives phenomenal insight as to what the day is really like for the actual committee and explains how they made their decisions on At Large teams and others. Here are some cool things I learned,

• The most prominent two stats (the first ones committee members see) are Average RPI Win and Average RPI Loss
• It takes just as long to make it as it does to play it.
• [On] L12, or RPI, or strength of schedule–
  

  Slive said that it’s a personal preference from one committee member to the next. Given that each of the 10 is human, each has spent individual basketball lifetimes building a different set of personal preferences as to what’s important. This process a collective and subjective decision, he said, based on consensus. “No single category qualifies or disqualifies a team.”

Now, in this simulation, Fairfield was computer calculated to win the MAAC (I think we can all agree that’s ridiculous, but give it a break– it’s a computer) and Siena was simulated to lose in the conference championship.

Siena was the last team in, receiving a 12 seed and slated to face UCLA in Boise, ID. Yikes that trip again! For what it’s worth, the last team to win the conference two consecutive years [Manhattan 03-04] was rewarded a 12 seed in their second-go-round.

Download: PDF

Siena didn’t know it, but its fate hung on the Big Ten game between Michigan State and Minnesota. If Michigan State (an at-large team) won, Siena was in. If Minnesota, not in the at-large pool, emerged victorious, the Gophers would jump up out of the abyss and take the last spot, leaving the Saints in the NIT.

So it was us or a Big Ten team– that sounds like people give Siena respect.

I myself have said that I think it’s highly unlikely that Siena gets an At Large bid in March, but hey– it can happen. That being said I still don’t trust leaving it up to the committee on the final day– and I think this mock proves that my fear is valid. There is no doubt Siena has built a legitmate On The Bubble resume, whether or not it will hold up, appears to be dependent on how other teams preform. There is one easy solution, Siena goes 4-0 from March 1st – March 9th.

I’ve been quoted as saying the only way this team gets an At Large Bid is by going undefeated [25-5], and losing by a buzzer beater in the MAAC title game [27-6]. I’m starting to think they might have a slightly better shot– but I still believe they would have to get to the title game.

Siena would need all of their ‘Top 100 RPI Wins’ to win their conferences. Buffalo would need to win the MAC, Boise State– the WAC, Cornell– the Ivy, and it would help if St. Joe’s got an At-Large. Perhaps the best bullet point on Siena’s resume is the fact that they have the 2nd toughest non-conference strength of schedule. As if it weren’t already– The Northern Iowa game is a must win.

Just two years ago, 12 conferences received multiple bids to the tournament. Interestingly enough, the MAAC is the 12th ranked conference by RPI right now [, but this will likely lower by tournament time]. Come March, the depth in the Big East and ACC would make it tough for the Selection Committee to give the MAAC two bids.

It’s important to note this post is purely hypothetical. I do not believe Siena is a lock to win out through the season, especially with Northern Iowa and Niagara back to back. It’s imperative they continue to play with a “game by game” mentality. It’d be much easier just to win the MAAC Tournament and really never test these theories.

* – Ratings are as of Saturday night. Kudos to soup for the info.

Take Siena, a tournament team that knocked off Vanderbilt last year and returned all its starters. The Saints couldn’t snag a win against Tennessee nor Oklahoma State nor even Wichita State at the Old Spice Classic. They also lost at Pittsburgh and Kansas. Now their best RPI win is against Boise State (RPI 50) and they will face just two RPI 100 teams for the rest of the season — conference foes Niagara (RPI 82) and Fairfield (90) — which means Siena’s tournament hopes will be pinned to an automatic bid.

OK, nothing we didn’t already know, but this will at least keep Siena on people’s minds nationally. What is obviously not mentioned in an article like this is that we were in three of those five games late and we didn’t play any of those tough games at home.