The Siena Saints (12-4, 5-0) host the Canisius Golden Griffins (8-8, 3-2) at the Times Union Center, 7pm Monday night.  The game will be broadcast on Time Warner Cable channel 3.  The Saints are tied for the third longest home court winning streak in the country at 29 with Dayton and Pittsburgh, behind Kansas (51) and Missouri (30), and will also try to extend their unbeaten streak against Canisius to nine in a row.   This isn’t quite the same Griffs team the Saints have faced in recent memory, though.

Canisius was picked to finish seventh in the MAAC conference by the coaches in the preseason men’s basketball poll, but the team has responded well early in the season.  Their non-conference wins may not be flashy, but a win at home against an improving Iona team served notice to other conference foes that the Griffs are here to compete this year– tied for third in the MAAC.

The Griffs are led by versitile 5’10″ senior guard Frank Turner.  A true stat stuffer, Turner leads the league in scoring with 17 points per game, averages 5.1 assists per game, 5.3 rebounds per game, and 2.3 steals per game.  Turner is the cornerstone of the team, and while names like Ubiles, Franklin, Thompson, Lewis, Harvey, and Benn may be thrown in to the hat for Player of the Year consideration, Frank Turner has to be at or near the top of the list.  He is a consistent and dynamic performer, and a huge reason why the Golden Griffins are working their way up the conference ladder for the first time in a long time.

Turner is followed in scoring by 6’4″ junior guard Julius Coles, who is averaging 15.1 points per game, and 6’7″ junior forward Greg Loggins who is averaging 10.9 points per game.  One of the key things to watch in this matchup though is going to be the battle of the boards – while Siena outrebounds it’s opponents 39-35.6 each game the Griffs also have a positive advantage in team rebounding, edging their opponents 37.8-35.6 per game.  The X-Factor for the Saints in this game may be the balanced scoring of its team, and if the Griffs can’t fully scheme for it and keep them off the glass then it may be a difficult night for them.

Siena’s scoring race has been as fun to watch as a Saratoga race card – Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are now tied for the lead with 15.3 per game.  While Clarence Jackson is as explosive as anyone on the team, he is sometimes an anomaly – he has led or tied for the lead in scoring in six games this year, but also threw in a few head scratchers.  As impressive as his defense has been at times this year, his defensive intensity and rare carelessness with decision making on the court has found him in coach McCaffery’s dog house on a couple of occasions.  Meanwhile, junior Ryan Rossiter is the stalwart down low, averaging almost a double-double with 12.6ppg and 9.8rpg.  No one man is called upon to shoulder the load night in and night out.  What is most likely going to be the linchpin for this team down the stretch is the now evident emergence of its bench players.

Sophomore guard Kyle Downey seems to have completely returned from a back injury during the offseason and looks like a completely different player – while he is not shooting prolifically from three-point range he is hitting crucial field goals, and his defense and rebounding has stepped up in the minutes he gets to spell the starters.  Freshman forward OD Anosike had the best game of his early career on Saturday against Niagara, scoring 6 points, and grabbing 9 rebounds and 3 blocks in 22 minutes of play.  If Coach McCaffery can continue to get production from these two and set a solid 7-man rotation, then any other quality minutes he can get from reserves Kyle Griffin, Davis Martens, and Jonathan Breeden will be icing on the cake.  It looks like the depth issue that hindered the Saint’s chances to get an ‘up’ non-conference win early in the season may be behind them as the squad looks to make a strong run through the MAAC schedule.

KEYS TO THE GAME

• Let’s Get Physical?: The Saints continue to rank high in the nation in fewest fouls committed, 5th currently with 14.4 per game – that stat is going to be tested by the strong and physical Golden Griffins.  If the Saints can absorb the contact and not get in to foul trouble while maintaining an edge in rebounding then they should have a great shot at getting the win.
• How Much Can You Bench?: The Saints almost got themselves in to uncharacteristic foul trouble against Niagara, but the reserves did a fine job logging minutes and producing quality play.  Downey and Anosike will continue to be the first two off the bench, but in this game the play of sophomore forward Owen Wignot and freshman forward Davis Martens could prove to be even more valuable if coach McCaffery finds a way to extend the bench even more.  The size and athleticism of Wignot and Martens could give different looks for the Saints against the physicality and post prowess of the Griffs.
• More Cowbell?  How About More Free Throws?: The Saints still average a paltry free throw shooting percentage of 65.4% halfway through the season, but they have averaged better than 70% in their last few games.  For a team that gets to the line as much as they do, and as much as they should on Monday night, the improved free throw shooting is a welcome sight.

NOTES

• The Saints are outscoring their opponents 79.2-61.8 in the friendly confines of the Times Union Center.  Who doesn’t long for someone to put up some big bucks and re-name it the Knickerbocker Arena again?
• Siena has a +17 scoring advantage in MAAC games, winning each MAAC contest by double digits, and the team leads the league in scoring, margin of victory, field goal percentage, rebounding, assists, and steals.
• While the Saints went 16-2 in conference last year, and are certainly trying to at least reach that mark again this year, the record for consecutive victories belongs to the 1988-99 squad who won 14 in a row.

If he decided to transfer to Siena, he would be eligible for the 2010-2011 season and be a RS sophomore.

Without Stephen Curry, Davidson lost [convincingly] to Citadel tonight, continuing to lower their resume for an NCAA At Large bid. Butler lost its second straight; 63-60 at the hands of Milwaukee, and will likely drop out of the Top 25 come Monday.

Kansas and Oklahoma State won tonight and Pittsburgh won Monday night against #1 UConn– bettering Siena’s RPI.

It’s safe to say Siena is within the top 5 best Mid Major teams in the country. (Butler, Utah State, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Siena– probably in any order). Saturday will be a true test, but with these top mid majors losing now, expect the national media to start looking other directions, and perking their ears up when they hear the name Siena.

Oh yeah, and Siena is guaranteed at least the NIT. Overall, a pretty good night.

The same crew that called the game tonight in Columbus, MO will travel to Albany, NY on Feburary 21st to call the bracketbuster game. Ron Franklin and Fran Fraschilla will call the action courtside for ESPN2.

Take Siena, a tournament team that knocked off Vanderbilt last year and returned all its starters. The Saints couldn’t snag a win against Tennessee nor Oklahoma State nor even Wichita State at the Old Spice Classic. They also lost at Pittsburgh and Kansas. Now their best RPI win is against Boise State (RPI 50) and they will face just two RPI 100 teams for the rest of the season — conference foes Niagara (RPI 82) and Fairfield (90) — which means Siena’s tournament hopes will be pinned to an automatic bid.

OK, nothing we didn’t already know, but this will at least keep Siena on people’s minds nationally. What is obviously not mentioned in an article like this is that we were in three of those five games late and we didn’t play any of those tough games at home.

Ronald Moore played spectacular last night, draining three after three when Kansas defenders gave him 6 inches of open space. Moore finished with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists. Last night you could see that Ronald Moore is the floor general; his team followed him on every call. Smart shots, distributing the basketball, and being around the tin to snag a couple of boards– you can’t ask much more from your point guard. There were questions about Ronald’s health earlier this year, but since he set his career high against Fairfield, Ronald has been beaming with confidence.

Don’t forget, this was Sherron Collins he was up against– Moore was pretty much step for step with him the entire night. Even towards the end of the game when Collins was looking to isolate, Moore did a great job defending, forcing Collins to spin into his help defense and put up a tough contested shot.

The Siena program got tremendous respect from Bill Self along with the local Kansas media [ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ].

LAWRENCE, Kan. — Cole Aldrich had a career-high 24 points and 13 rebounds, and Kansas held off Siena 91-84 Tuesday night after nearly blowing a 20-point lead.

Kansas (11-3) was hoping to avoid a letdown after knocking off then-14th-ranked Tennessee on Saturday and jumped on Siena early with a 25-1 run to go up 30-10 in the first 10 minutes. The Jayhawks let Siena (10-5) back in it with poor perimeter defense before pulling out their 33rd straight win at Allen Fieldhouse, the nation’s third-longest home-court winning streak.

Sherron Collins had 18 points for Kansas and Tyrel Reed added a career-high 14. Siena fell into a huge hole early but never gave up, staying close by hitting 10-of-21 from 3-point range.

The Saints pulled within 69-65 on Kyle Downey‘s hard drive with 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, but couldn’t get any closer. Ronald Moore led the Saints with 18 points and Clarence Jackson added 17.

Equally as impressive as Collins is sophomore Center Cole Aldrich. At 6’11″, 245 [literally all muscle], he is a physical presence under the hoop that opponents have just not been able to stop. He averages just about a double/double per game and has yet to put up a single digits point total in any game this year.

Redshirt sophomore Brady Morningstar is also a big threat from beyond the arc. Brady has a very high basketball IQ, and only takes the shot when he has it. He’s shooting 47% from three point land [22/46 on the season].

The athleticism of this Kansas team screams zone. Look at Kansas’ roster… boy this team has some sophomore class. Forget Holy Cross, Kansas is not a team we’re going to want to play again in the next few years.

The Saints had a pretty wild 12 hour trip to Kansas yesterday. But the good news is both Ryan Rossiter and Josh Duell have traveled with the team and are likely available for tonight.

Tennessee really played poorly and Temple controlled the tempo for all forty minutes. The Volunteers were beaten of the dribble, made lackluster passes and did not get out and defend Dionte Christmas. Christmas finished up with 7 3-pointers and 35 points on the afternoon. After the loss, Bruce Pearl talked about how young his team is and that they’re not forcing enough turnovers. They forced 13 on Saturday. Last year at this time they were averaging 22 forced turnovers per contest. That is Pearl’s system, he’s got the guys to do it, they just need some time together. I still think this team will be playing very late into March.

Kansas vs. UMass was really an awesome game. It’s too bad it had to compete with Memphis @ Georgetown– hard to pass that up, but we’ve got to watch the Jayhawks when we can. It was back and forth pretty much the whole game, with the Jayhawks constantly trying to catch up to the Minutemen. UMass had a plethora of three point shooters who picked the team up with a 3 every time they needed to stop a Kansas run. This is what we don’t have– established three point threats. This is why I don’t see us beating Kansas. Chris Lowe, their PG has 533 career assists, and can shoot from beyond the arc. He’s chasing the all time record in assists at UMass 633. Tony Gaffney is also a treat to watch. He may be 6’8″, but he was beating Kansas defenders to the bucket on Saturday afternoon. Oh yeah, he finished up with 13 boards and 6 blocks too.

To upset a major (ranked) team, you need to have (at least) one athlete who is just phenomenal. Temple has Dionte Christmas, UMass has Tony Gaffney who is an extremely tough assignment, and of course, Davidson has Stephen Curry. Siena is the complete opposite, we’ve got a team of role players. Edwin Ubiles might be that guy, but I sincerely doubt he will break out and have that kind of night against that caliber of an opponent. Let’s face it; if the aforementioned guys are on Earth, Edwin is on Neptune.

FYI– Xavier is still unbeaten.

Congratulations to Sam Bradford who won the Heisman Trophy Saturday night. Sam, this national championship better come quick because lots of people are starting to focus on how Oklahoma hoops looks unreal.

Ken Pomeroy is routinely described on college hoop blogs as the Bill James of college basketball. Ken was a writer for ESPN and his work has been cited in Sports Illustrated, The New York Times, and The Washington Post.

You can get it on Amazon, or if you like BP and Baseball Prospectus go to their redirect, or at your local bookstore. So let’s kick off some questions!

Siena Saints Blog: It seems like just yesterday we were talking about the first Old Spice Classic, the MAAC sponsored non-conference tournament, that showcased Marist in their first win over a Big Ten school. Of course the coach of that school would, after the trip, resign…  Siena won’t face the prospect of that going up against Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee Volunteers in game one (Noon/ESPN2) and following that up against either Wichita State/Georgetown Friday, will this Thanksgiving weekend be feast or famine for the Saints?

Ken Pomeroy, Basketball Prospectus/Kenpom.com: So you’re saying Minnesota fans have Jared Jordan and Matt Brady to thank for Tubby Smith leading them back to respectability (or possibly more)? It’s funny how college hoops works like that.

Anyway, it’s never too early to firm up those holiday plans, and if you’re headed to Grandma’s house for Turkey Day, it’s worth making sure that there will be a private room set aside with access to ESPN2HD. I think that first game between Siena and Tennessee is captivating whether one has a rooting interest in it or not. You have one team which will be highly ranked and another which has legitimate aspirations to put together an at-large resume, which is saying something considering the conference they’re in. Plus, Siena will be willing to run with UT, so it won’t bore grandma.

Your readers surely know more about Siena than I do, so I’ll just say that I don’t expect Tennessee to be much different than last season. Occasionally, they’ll look like one of the best teams in the country, and occasionally they’ll struggle to look like a top 25 team. They have a bunch of exciting newcomers to go along with JP Prince, Tyler Smith, and Wayne Chism, so it’s probably best to catch them in November and not March.

How crazy would it be if Siena knocked off Wichita State in the second round? The cruel chain of events that sent Dan Monson packing eventually led to a coaching vacancy in Wichita the following offseason and the Shockers have struggled making the transition to a new coach. It would be like the MAAC is single-handedly taking down a program.

Given the field in this tourney, Siena would have to feel great about coming up with two wins somehow. If they do that, they’ll start to get some overdue attention beyond MAAC beat writers.

SSB: Would you evaluate the MAAC as a mid-major or a low major conference?

Pomeroy: We’re delving into the land of arbitrary distinctions and I try not to spend too much time trying to label things. There’s a million ways to rank conferences or establish their “goodness”.  I think just about any one you pick would have the MAAC in the bottom half of D-I, perhaps on the edge of the bottom third. I mean, on the one hand the conference has a couple of non play-in game tournament wins this decade. On the other, their champ was placed in the play-in game just two seasons ago. And although it was a horrible decision to put Niagara in that game, just being considered for it says something. Were I the MAAC commissioner, I might borrow Dan Hawkins’ line for a conference motto. “It’s Division I basketball! It’s the MAAC! It ain’t intramurals!” That about sums it up.

SSB: If you were on the NCAA Selection Committee (we might have a better field), but if you were, what would you use as criteria to select teams to the NCAA Tournament? What tools do you think they favor more and which would you favor more?

Pomeroy: If I was on the committee I would be criticized as not being a “basketball person” and would probably find myself in the corner of the meeting room talking to myself. In general my criteria wouldn’t be any different than the committee’s – find the best teams. What determines that should be fairly easy to figure. If it’s offensive rebounding in the last 5 minutes of the game, then let’s use that. Realistically, it’s probably not that complicated. Recent research suggests that road performance is pretty important. Not simply road wins, but playing well on the road, be it a close loss to a great team or lopsided wins against lesser foes. As far as what the committee does, I don’t think they are nearly as analytical as I am (who is?), but in general they agree with the notion that the quality of a team goes beyond simple wins and losses. A team can play very well and lose, and likewise play poorly and win.

SSB: We are in a season of change with the new three point line, if you can change THREE things in the state of college basketball, what would you change and why?

Pomeroy:

1. Get rid of the play-in game and remove an at-large bid from the field. I mean, I don’t really know anyone who’s passionate about the play-in game.

2. Reduce the number of timeouts for each team to three. Anything to reduce the number of stoppages towards the end of the game, but also to discourage coaches from stopping the game every time the opponent goes on 6-0 run.

3. We need a more consistent view of intentional fouls. The end-of-game foul parade is not an attractive part of the game and clearly most of these fouls would be ruled intentional were they committed at other times in the game. I’d like to see that cleaned up.

SSB: If you had to put a percentage down on each game: Siena picking up a win @ Kansas, @ St. Joes or @ Pittsburgh? And then % of one of the 3.

Pomeroy:
Kansas: 5%
St. Joe’s 30%
Pitt 5%.

That would give them a 37% chance of winning at least one of those.

SSB: Do you think we will ever be able to measure the effects of transfers coming down from larger conferences into mid/low major conferences?

Pomeroy: Oh sure. There’s enough data out there to do it now, so maybe that’s an idea for next season’s book. One limitation is that a player taking a step down usually hasn’t played many minutes at the higher level. Subjectively, it appears to me that some things transfer well, like usage, rebounding and blocks, regardless if you’re moving down or up. What is affected most is the efficiency stats like field goal percentage and turnovers. Louie McCroskey’s year at Marist seems to confirm that.

SSB: One of the teams I still think has been a real good dark horse these last 2 years has been Fairfield, it seems like we have talked about them being a real contender for the conference title…

Pomeroy: I think that’s a reasonable goal for them, not that I would expect it of course. To challenge Siena they would have to significantly improve their defense.  Their offense is going to cause a ton of problems for MAAC opponents.

SSB: Give me a MAAC top 3 if you had to choose today…

Pomeroy: Siena, Rider, Fairfield. I’m really interested to see how Rider does without Thompson. On the one had, the guy had a tremendous combination of shot-blocking and rebounding ability, so you’d think the defense would take a hit. But Rider’s D stunk two seasons ago in Thompson’s junior season, so maybe his influence isn’t as much as people might think.

SSB: So, Marist, the cupboard was left pretty bare.. I’m afraid to ask what you think of them

Pomeroy: Let’s say 8-10 in the league. Too bad Jay Gavin got away. With him, Marist would have had one of the best backcourts in the league.

SSB: Okay, a few national questions: What do you think of Tom Crean heading to Indiana? Can he restore the tainted legacy?

Pomeroy: I’ll always give Crean the benefit of the doubt because one year at Marquette, he (or someone on his staff) made sure that rebounding percentages were listed at the end of the official box score that the school produced. A man with that kind of outside-the-box thinking is destined for success. The early returns are looking favorable for the Hoosiers and really, it’s Indiana. A coach with some experience running a major program would have to work hard, or make a bunch of illegal phone calls, to screw it up.

SSB: Who is your National Title Darkhorse…

Pomeroy: Good question, because any pick besides UNC is a darkhorse. For a mild shocker, I’ll take Texas. For an out-of-the-blue contender, I’m intrigued by Wake Forest. A trio of big freshmen coming in and a returning core that should improve offensively.

SSB: College Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009 comes out October 28th, your name is on the cover among others. What are we going to find in this 336 page book? Already #16,920 in books on Amazon (as of October 7th) but who’s counting…

Pomeroy: Ah, yes. I thought we were never going to get to that. With this kind of publicity, the book can get into the top 15,000. (Ed. Note: It is now #12,508 in books) My commercial goes like this…The book will contain the kind of content that fans have found at Basketball Prospectus for the past year. Gasaway and I have put together in-depth previews for each team in the power conferences and some content on the other top conferences that can be expected to send multiple teams to the tournament. There’s another section with more general content about the game including some insight from Kevin Pelton, Will Carroll, and John Perrotto, And even though there are plenty of stats that you won’t find anywhere else, except possibly at kenpom.com, you don’t need a Ph.D. in Math to get a lot out of this book. The analysis is of the kind that won’t be found in another preview at your bookstore.

SSB: What else can we look forward to on Basketball Prospectus for this year? Also who else collaborated on the books content and will continue to write there?

Pomeroy: I’m really excited about our eight-part series on what makes Tyler Hansbrough the hardest worker in the game today. Seriously, though, it’s hard to know what you’ll see this season. Basically, we react to events that happen during the season so we’ll just have to wait and see. The cast is pretty much the same as last season, except I’ll be doing less writing due to a number of other commitments I have over the next few months. But the site will still have the kind of analysis you can’t get at other sites.

SSB: Great stuff Ken, it’s always interesting picking your brain about college hoops. Best of luck with the release of the book.

Pomeroy: Thank you Ryan, take care.

There you have it. Go Buy Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009 on October 28th.