If we can establish that Siena, Niagara and Rider are the likely top three in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference let’s try to hash out that next tier of contenders. It’s time to find out who is for real and who isn’t in the MAAC. Are the Gaels as good as advertised? Are the Greyhounds going to take some of their non-conference momentum into the conference season? Will the Fairfield Stags, relatively untested in the non-conference, show that they are a top 5 team in the MAAC?

Is Iona for Real?

Reasons Iona is for Real: Iona erased doubters thoughts about their right to contend in the MAAC this year with a 63-60 win in Buffalo over Niagara. All of Iona’s non-conference wins have been by eight points or more. Iona’s most impressive wins: beating Creighton (by eight) in Orlando and beating Providence (by nine) on the road. Iona wasn’t expected to win at top-25 UConn and lost by 19 but the Gaels played hard in Orlando putting up tough fights against Florida State (loss by 6) and Baylor (played the Bears to overtime but lost 72-62).

Counter-Arguments: Iona dropped two straight MAAC home contests; a two point loss St. Peter’s and a 13 point loss to Siena in December. They went on the Buffalo swing and beat Niagara but lost by 12 at Canisius Monday night. The Gaels, who shot 39.9% (30th nationally) from behind the arc entering tonight, went 7 for 30 from three point range (23.3%) and were out rebounded by 12 against a team that isn’t necessarily dominant inside.

Verdict: Iona is most likely for real this year and could be contending for a #4-#6 seed.

Is Loyola (MD) for Real?

Reasons Loyola (MD) is for Real: Loyola’s best win this year is their big win over Indiana in the Big Ten. It is big in the historic context: it was Loyola’s first win over a Big Ten team in school history. Loyola led by as much as 24 points during that game and Brett Harvey has been on a hot streak as of late, despite not playing last night against Siena. Second team All-MAAC member Jamal Barney has been the leader for the Greyhounds, taking most of the shots and shooting 42% from the field.

Counter-Arguments: Loyola dropped a game in overtime at Coppin State, a team with only one other Division-I win. A 19 point loss at Mount St. Mary’s does not help define this team’s profile either. The Mountaineers have lost eight straight which included a tough overtime loss at Siena. A three point win over 1-12 UMBC doesn’t impress either.

Barney and the Greyhounds had a chance to impress on Monday night but failed to do so in a 20-point home loss to Siena. They had to try and play the Saints with Brett Harvey sitting out due to an undisclosed injury. The Saints got lucky to be spared of Harvey in the lineup and took advantage, leading by as many as 30 points on Monday night.

Verdict: It is difficult to see given the current situation. If the Greyhounds lose Brett Harvey for a significant amount of time, Loyola would be at a huge loss. They have two more tough games at Fairfield and home Sunday against Iona. If Harvey is back and they can split or win both, we are looking at a real contender.

Is Fairfield for Real?

Reasons Fairfield is for Real: The Stags have started out really well, starting 10-3 and got off to a 3-0 start in the MAAC. One thing we know for sure, Derek Needham is a top candidate for MAAC Rookie of the Year. Needham has won or shared the award five times already this season. The true freshman has scored double digit points in every game but one this season. Junior Yorel Hawkins has been impressive as well in 2009-10. Hawkins has significantly improved his field goal and free throw shooting from last year, he leads the team in field goal percentage at 53.9% coming into Monday night.

Counter-Arguments: Fairfield won seven non-conference games so far this year. However their strength of schedule out of conference ranks 2nd to last in the MAAC and ranked 337th in the nation of 347 going into Monday night. Fairfield ranks in the middle of the pack of the MAAC in three point shooting. The assist (204) to turnover (194) leaves much to be desired.

Verdict: Even though they lost at Niagara, Needham made a career high 12 field goals and scored a career high 28 points. There is chance that Fairfield is a team that is shining through smoke and mirrors right now but they should be locked into at least a #6-#7 seed range.

Marist Notches Win #1!

Marist went 7 for 17 from three point land and got an even performance from their entire team in their first win of the season, a 72-66 win over Manhattan. Marist has guaranteed themselves not going winless this year. How did they follow that up? By losing at St. Peter’s by 12.

Marist has only had one win streak, a streak of two on December 23 and 28 of 2008, during the Chuck Martin era.

When not worrying about Siena’s chances in the MAAC this season, Ryan is writing about Fantasy Baseball on Rotosavants.com, reporting on the Colonial Athletic Association for Rushthecourt.net and writing on his own website: RyanRestivo.com.

(courtesy Kenpom.com going into Tuesday)
Chance of winless record:    24.68% (overall)    31.92% (in conference)

Marist lost convincingly against Binghamton, shooting 29.4% from the field. The Bearcats dominated in a 70-52 rout, their 2nd win over a Division I team (their other D-I win came at home against Bucknell). With this loss Marist increased their odds of going winless 20% over one night. Marist scored 5 points in the final five and a half minutes of the game.

Add to it the fact that Casiem Drummond is not eligible yet and might never be. On Monday a crushing blow was sent to Marist as they ruled Drummond to be academically ineligible (courtesy: Poughkeepise Journal).

You have to wonder whether Drummond will ever play for Marist at this rate. Friend of the site, Greg Hyrina adds his comments at his site as well. This will not be a great year to be a Red Foxes fan, the team is very young and inexperienced and you just have to hope that these players that second-year Head Coach Chuck Martin has brought in will continue to show their potential and develop.

Consider that, according to Kenpom.com’s game probabilities: the chances of Marist when they travel to Siena are listed as 0%. You have to figure they have a chance but they are a very young team and could be exposed further against Siena and the more experienced MAAC teams.

Everyone Else Doing Well

Every other MAAC team has at least 5 wins this season but it’s time to review the teams that have impressed us still as teams finish their out of conference schedules and get ready for a grueling MAAC regular season.

Fairfield has been off to a strong start and hung tough in Rhode Island but fell just short in an 89-84 loss. Anthony Johnson led the way with 23 points, on 10 of 14 shooting, and 10 rebounds. Derek Needham has to be near the lead for Rookie of the Year, scoring double digits in all but one game. Siena and Fairfield are #1 and #2 in the MAAC in shooting from inside the 3 point arc, respectively. We will see how real Fairfield is quickly as they will travel to the Buffalo swing to start the New Year.

Rider has settled into a quiet 8-5 this year. After a great win at Mississippi State, they are looking like a team that is still searching for an identity as they enter conference play. Rider was unable to hold off Rutgers in Overtime, being outscored 10-0 in the overtime period. Ryan Thompson is finding his groove, with 26 points and 8 rebounds in a loss. Thompson ceded the stage at Monmouth to Jamar Youngblood. Youngblood, who transferred from Monmouth to Rider, torched the Hawks making 3 of Rider’s 4 three’s and scoring 19 points in a 7 point come from behind win.

Iona and Albany met for the first time and Iona came away with a 13 point win. Kyle Smyth has erupted for 48 points over the last three games on 65% shooting. Smyth is 4th best on the team with 41.3% 3 point field goal percentage and has made a huge leap in his development. Siena handled the Gaels well on the road in their first meeting but look for Iona to be much improved going into that February 5th matchup.

MAAC Notes

Rico Pickett for the Jaspers, a junior college transfer, has put up double digit points in every game where he’s taken double digit shots. However 1.4 3 point field goals per game and a 28.9% three point field goal percentage leave him with some more work on his game. Manhattan is on break until December 30th when they travel to Vanderbilt.

Niagara hosts St. Bonaventure tonight and then takes off for the holidays… Manhattan has yet to see one-armed Kevin Laue score a collegiate point yet, he is 0 for 1 from the field and 0 for 3 from the free throw line. Loyola has started out at 5-5 and travels to Indiana tonight to play the Hoosiers. If Loyola (5-5)

loses tonight, they will be the only the 3rd MAAC team under .500 this year (Canisius is 4-6, Marist is 0-8).

It might be too early to talk about this but there is a possibility that Marist does not win a game this year.

Yes Marist tied their 2nd worst start in school history by starting out 0-7. With game probabilities posted today on Kenpom.com, the Red Foxes are a 10% or less underdog in 14 of their 21 remaining games, not counting the “BracketBuster.” So I set out to do some research in contacting friend of the site, Ken Pomeroy.

Ryan (Siena Saints Blog): You have [Marist] as underdogs in every game except this Sunday against Binghamton. I was wondering if you could run the numbers to see the chances they could go winless in 2009-10.

I know there might be a few factors that might change (ie: two players come back for Marist after being suspended/leave on Sunday plus Binghamton is bad)

Unbelievably, the Marist record for worst start is 0-12, so at least they can look up. Thank you!

I received a quick response from the friend of the site:

Ken Pomeroy (Kenpom.com): Just for the Marist faithful, I’ve added the chance of going winless for all teams. Looks like Marist leads the nation with their nearly 3% chance! Seems like yesterday they were owning the league.

You can find it on the Marist team page. I love these stats by the way and thank goodness for automation. Yes, we’re not able to run some probabilities on games like tournament games that play on back to back games, but we get a lot of good data out of this. Marist only has two unlisted games on this schedule: the BracketBuster game and their first MAAC Tournament game. Even with those two the odds can’t get much better.

Marist does not look like a good offensive team at all right now but they get Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond and all-Rookie team member RJ Hall back after his academic suspension for Sunday’s game against Binghamton.

This will probably be their best chance to win before entering conference play. Boston College transfer Daye Kaba has disappointed so far and Marist has put up a bunch of statistical oddities. Only one player (Kaba) has more assists than turnovers (by a margin of 1) and the team has shot 53.9% from the Free throw line (344th in the nation, of 347).

There are currently 9 winless teams in all of Division I.

Marist Keeps Struggling & Ticket-Gate?

Marist had more turnovers (9) than field goals (7) in the first half in a loss at Holy Cross Monday. Marist had a lead at Fairfield Thursday night but the Stags went on a 13-1 run to take the lead with under 4 minutes to go. Head Coach Chuck Martin has said he sees some progress, Marist has shot better in each of its last 3 games after being blown out by Hartford by 37.

Siena fans have been complaining that Marist is intentionally not selling tickets online to hold off Siena fans from coming to Poughkeepsie for their game later this year. We are currently investigating this story but so far have no heard any incidents that may have caused this stonewalling of online ticket sales.

Marist and Siena fans will both suffer for the inability to secure tickets to a game that is very popular, especially those who planned to come from out of town to go see this game in late January. I would say this decision would be more infuriating to out-of-town alumni who like to go see rivalry games, not just Siena fans.

Meanwhile, Marist is still seeking their first win despite not having played a home game yet this season.

Niagara, Rider & Fairfield: Looking Like Contenders

Niagara blew out Manhattan by 24 but the Purple Eagles have had trouble managing expectations this year. Losing Tyrone Lewis in the opening game of the year for a few games did not help either. Niagara lost a winnable game at Auburn, lost by 2 to Austin Peay on a neutral floor and last week could not stop Akron in a 12 point road loss.

Rider has returned to form, picking up an impressive 8 point non-conference win over St. Joseph’s. Preseason Conference Player of the Year Ryan Thompson has not truly gotten going yet. So far he has scored more points from the free throw line (77.8% FT shooter) than from behind the three point line (39.3% 3pt shooter). Thompson has also turned the ball over more this year than in years past.

Other than a Maryland loss and a Charles Jenkins’ led 38 points at Hofstra, Fairfield has done very well in the non-conference slate this year while battling injuries. Fairfield managed a 9 point win over Marist to open the 2009-10 MAAC regular season schedule.

Iona & St. Peter’s: Who will rise to contend?

Iona won one game in Orlando and gets a tough test in Siena at home on Monday night. They were unable to hold off St. Peter’s in a 56-54 loss at home to open their conference slate. Jonathan Huffman led the way for Iona with 14 points. Iona put up a fight in Orlando in two tough losses to Baylor and Florida State and has another tough test at Providence later this month.

While for St. Peter’s Wesley Jenkins has been a force. Jenkins took the team on his back on this week in two close wins. On Monday, Jenkins sank two free throws, for his team-high 16 points, with 2.2 seconds left then stole the inbounds pass to ensure the Peacocks a 58-56 win over Lafayette. On Friday night Jenkins, scoring 12 of his 16 points in the second half, gave the Peacocks their first conference win.

Jenkins made a season-high 4 three pointers and has scored double digit points in every game this season. Darius Conley delivered a career high 11 points in their win over Iona.

Rider opened up their home schedule with an 11-0 run to start and would not surrender the lead in a 15 point win over Lehigh. Rider shot 48.4% for the game which included an absurd 16 of 29 from three point range (55.2%). Novar Gadson led the Broncs with 20 points, Ryan Thompson (7/13, 5/9 from three point range) added 19. Andy Katz posted on Monday that Rider hopes the Mississippi State win comes in handy for March:

The Broncs aren’t done, either. If they don’t slip where they’re not supposed to (like, say, against Lehigh on Monday night) and possibly steal a road game Thursday at Virginia, even if they lose Saturday at Kentucky, they already will have done a lot to keep them in the at-large discussion come March. All this might sound a bit premature in November, but it’s not that far fetched, especially if the MAAC continues to be as strong as it is showing so far.

Rider has got votes into the AP poll for the first time in school history. This is Rider’s second 2-0 start since 1974-75.

Tuesday

St. Peter’s opened the morning for ESPN’s marathon at 6am and put a hurting on Monmouth. St. Peter’s had a lead as large as 26 in their 58-34 win. Wesley Jenkins led the Peacocks with 10 points and  8 rebounds. This was a great win for the Peacocks after losing a heart breaker at Seton Hall. They are my sleeper team this year and could be a tough team in the conference schedule. I don’t care what you say about it, the 24 hours of basketball was a well executed idea that led to a lot of excitement on campuses you might not normally see.

Niagara did not make things easy in a 76-69 victory over Drexel. Niagara held a lead as large as 15 but Drexel used a six minute run to cut that to two possessions. In a game that was tight, without Tyrone Lewis, the Purple Eagles were able to survive. Reports were good that Lewis would be back for the Drexel game on Saturday. Rob Garrison led the Purple Eagles with 20 points, 10 of which came from the free throw line. Niagara did not shoot well (40.5% effective FG%) but was helped by going 25 for 31 (80.6%) from the free throw line.

However, the main story is that Lewis was ruled out of the game and watched with street clothes in a protective boot. Things did not appear to be any clearer after the game as the Niagara Gazette reported:

“I don’t know exactly what the injury is,” [Joe] Mihalich said. “It’s a long word.”

When asked about when he’d return from reporters, Lewis said he’d be ready for the next game.

Iona went down to Hampton and won 68-63 propelled by a great first half. Iona shot 48.3 eFG% in the first half with 22 points coming from off the bench. Iona took a lead as large as 14 with 14:38 to play and were barely holding on as Hampton used a 13-1 run to cut the lead to 1 with 5:33 to go.  Junior center Alejo Rodriguez is making his run as being the Gaels go to guy, scoring 17 points in 23 minutes, going 7 for 8 from the field and adding three free throws. Add that  with a good win over Boston University and the new-look Gaels are looking pretty good.

Loyola of Chicago took a lead close to the middle of the first half and never gave it up in a 20 point win over Canisius. Elton Frazier was the only starter for the Golden Griffins to not have 4 or more turnovers. Canisius’ 22 turnovers will be a problem but being down forced them to jack up three’s which they only shot 6 of 21 from behind the arc (28.6%). Julius Coles led the Griffs with 18 points, Frank Turner scored 17 and Greg Logins scored 11 in the loss. The defense was another problem as Loyola shot a 64.5% effective FG% including an 11 of 18 mark from three point land. Canisius has not won a season opener since 2003.

The good news is Fairfield had a 12-7 lead with 12:10 to go in the first half. The bad news? Maryland would open the game up after that and take a lead as large as 29 in their 71-42 win over the Stags. Freshman Derek Needham was the Stags only double digit scorer with 15. Needham led the Stags on Sunday in a win over Fordham with 19 points.  Fairfield was only down 8 at halftime but Maryland turned up the heat to give the Stags their first loss:

“Inexperience showed all over the place,” Fairfield coach Ed Cooley said. “I thought we had good spurts but didn’t have the experience to sustain it.”

There are some rumors that Greg Nero might not return this season due to his sinus surgery. Nero, Yorel Hawkins and Warren Edney have not appeared yet for the Stags. This will give the younger players a chance to play early and see if the Stags can build some much needed depth for the MAAC regular season.

Wednesday

Wednesday did not appear to be a great day for the MAAC. Princeton went on a 16-2 run to cut a 7 point Manhattan lead and beat the Jaspers 61-54. Princeton was able to outscore Manhattan by 10 in the second half despite shooting a 33.3% effective FG% and only making 6 shots from the field. Princeton made up their scoring at the line, making 16 of 20 (80%) from the line.

One noteworthy achievement in this game, Darryl Crawford scored his 1,000th point with 9:11 to go in the game. Crawford and Rico Pickett led the Jaspers with 14 points each. Crawford notched a double double with 14 points and 10 rebounds.

Loyola grabbed a great local road win in a 69-66 victory over UMBC. Jamal Barney scored 14 of his team-leading 21 in the second half which included the game deciding layup with 11.7 seconds left. Former Siena Saint Chris De La Rosa scored 6 and dished out 8 assists for UMBC.

It took Marist about 25 minutes to score 38 points against Rutgers on Saturday in their seven point loss to the Scarlet Knights, but it took them a lot longer to get to that number in West Hartford on Wednesday in an embarrassing 75-38 loss. This appears to be the least amount of points scored in a loss Marist Men’s Basketball Division I history. (*In quickly scanning the Marist Media Guide, the least amount of points in a loss in Marist history appears to be 41 in a 43-41 loss in February of 1984) Marist 2nd year Head Coach Chuck Martin did not sugarcoat this one either:

“Arguably the worst game I’ve ever been affiliated with in my 12 years” [Martin] told the [Marist] broadcast team after the game. “The score is really hard to swallow,” said Martin, adding the Red Foxes’ “selfish play” was “something as a staff, we’re not going to tolerate.”

Marist shot a 30.5% effective FG% and went 7 of 27 from three point range. Marist had one double digit scorer in Candon Rusin and freshman have led the Red Foxes in scoring in both of their games. Friend of mine (and so, the site) Greg Hrinya posted his quick take on his site. The good news? They get a long time to practice before their next game at New Hampshire.

Warning! I’m not on the Niagara bandwagon.

I don’t profess to any biases but I just don’t think this team has it anymore. A team that graduated a tough inside player to replace like Benson Egemonye will find him hard to replace. A team that has traditionally used very little of its bench, so little that it was 334th in the nation in the use of their bench, will need to figure out how to replace some production to keep its top tier status.

Another red flag you ask? This team relies too heavily on the three point shot and with the new three point line, it will have to start hurting them soon. Niagara shot 39.3% of its shots from 3 point land in 2009. Yet three pointers have only been 31.9% of their points or less in over the last 5 years. The new three point line led to decreased shots and decreased efficiency last year, expect more of the same.

3 point shots out of total field goals, Last 5 Years
2009: 39.3%
2008: 40.1%
2007: 37.6%
2006: 40.3%
2005: 39.3%

By the way, Niagara shot 30.9% from 3 point range, 305th in the nation last year.

Here’s another negative; Tyrone Lewis is NOT going to make his run for player of the year. He has not shown to become an efficient offensive force for the Purple Eagles throughout the last few years. Lewis’ field goal percentage has actually regressed over the last three years. This is probably why his points per game only jumped by 0.1 last year. Lewis took 28% of the teams shots last year, first on Niagara and 199th for an individual player in the nation. Considering there are 1720 players who start (344 teams times 5 starting spots) that is a ton of shots. Teams might let Lewis shoot next year if he doesn’t show improvement on his shot.

Even though he shot more threes last year which could contribute to the regression, there is another underlying problem. Lewis has regressed as a 2 point shooter as well. From 50.0%, to 47.3% all the way down to 34.5% last year, Lewis has not capitalized enough to be an elite team-leading scorer.

Niagara might be helped if Rob Garrison takes more of the shots. Garrison had a great year last year, shooting 51.5% from 2 point range, a 48.5% eFG% while taking only 19.3% of the team’s shots. Junior point guard Anthony Nelson is a good leader on the floor, with a 28.4% assist rate, good for 126th in the nation last year.

The offense could improve this coming year. They were a 47.6% eFG team, good for 226th in the nation last year. If they can get better from 3 point range, this team could be a threatening offense. However, they just shoot too much to get any momentum going from beyond the arc. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the MAAC Championship Game against Siena. Niagara shot 3 of 18 in the 2nd half from beyond the arc, after shooting 6 of 19 to keep the score tied at halftime.

One reason they might continue to be a top team in a lot of defensive metrics is their schedule strength. Their non-conference schedule was slightly above average last year, however produced only one win against a top 100 kempom ranked team (Illinois State). Niagara opens at Auburn and plays a common Siena opponent in NEC runner up Mount Saint Mary’s.

PREDICTION: I think Niagara is one of the four best teams in the conference, but the Purple Eagles being guaranteed that 2nd spot behind Siena is not a sound investment. I think Rider is that 2nd place team.

Marist
2009: 10th Place. 10-23 (4-14)
2010: 10th

Marist did not begin the Chuck Martin era well, but reinforcements are on the way.

Listed as a Junior transfer, Daye Kaba comes from Boston College to deliever some athleticism to the offense in Poughkeepise. Kaba, in limited play at BC scored a total of 16 points in 16 total games. The transfers that tend to land in the conference tend to become the team’s go-to player. Expect Kaba to take a high percentage of shots. In a new offense, Ryan Schneider led the Red Foxes taking 25.2% of the team’s shots; Louie McCroskey the year before took 30.3%. He and Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond will provide an instant presence for Marist.

Drummond played sparingly as a freshman and then was a contributor in 2007-08 team. Drummond scored 2 points in Villanova’s 84-72 win over Siena in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. In Drummond’s 21 games in 07-08, he managed a 52.4 eFG% and highest percentages in offensive and defensive rebounds. He will have the chance to be a legitimate inside presence during the MAAC season. Drummond cannot play until the first semester is over.

By the way two plugs. I love the enhanced box scores on the kenpom.com team pages. When you’re not checking here for information about the MAAC (of course) and you like Marist Basketball, check out Marist alum Greg Hrinya‘s blog: Marist Dribble Drive. He thinks Marist will finish in the middle of the pack.

Greg’s notes on the freshmen (via e-mail):

- Devin Price could start and has great athleticism at the point. 6′ 1″ PG that can compete in dunk contests.
- Menelik Watson looked a little heavy and out of shape. Kind of disappointed although his muscles are huge. [Greg talked to Watson this summer, highly recommended, check it out!]
- Rob Johnson looked good and is probably vying with Dorvell Carter for the starting spot at the 4.
- Candon Rusin is this team’s [Will] Whittington. He’s the best shooter on the team, hard to say how he fits in.
- Sam Prescott is probably the best overall freshman in terms of freakish athleticism. He could start but I bet Martin goes with more experienced guys.
-Anell Alexis had a knee injury in the offseason.

What might be worse for this team are the unexpected losses. The Red Foxes lost David Devezin to unexpected exhaustion of eligibility. Somewhere along the way from Texas A&M to Junior College to Marist, paperwork was not sure about one of his first years being an injury red-shirt year. Lawrence Williams made his departure seem like a mutual break up.

Marist starts out its first six games on the road this year. They will then follow that up by playing 3 of their next 4 against America East teams (Boston, Binghamton, Vermont). Marist won 10 games last year, 5 of which were against non-conference opponents.

IMPORTANT STAT: In games decided by 6 points or less, Marist went 5-8. So as much as I want to say Marist can turn it around, Marist barely won half of their games. 3 of those 5 wins were decided by one possession or less!

The Marist offense last year was unsurprisingly inept. Posting some of the worst margins in 2 point field goal percentage, percentage of shots blocked, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding numbers. Once teams figured this dribble drive offense out, they forced Marist to take threes which they would (36.6% of shots were 3 pointers last year 81st in the nation).

The MAAC is already a high tempo league so bringing this high tempo offense to the conference hasn’t seemed to pay off yet. Teams have decided to just make Marist beat a variety of zones which made Marist’s offense look generic during the year.

PREDICTION: This team will gain some more experience but it will be difficult for them to break 14 wins. This team is rebuilding the right way though and a breakthrough could be predicted for 2010. Just don’t count on it this year.

St. Peter’s
2009: 2nd Place. 11-19 (8-10)
2010: 8th

This is the team to watch for 2010.

With exactly 0 seniors on the roster, this team will be trying to make the stride to have a big 2010-11 season. Junior College transfer Jeron Belin and redshirt freshman Darius Conley could be one of the top 4 frontcourts in the MAAC.

The reason St. Peter’s will be a good team next year: the improvement of Wesley Jenkins, Nick Leon and Ryan Bacon. All three experienced juniors, Bacon led the team in 527% eFG% and is the inside presence for the Peacocks. The only problem Bacon has had is foul trouble, he averages 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

Leon is an all around scorer who took 29.7% of the team’s shots last year. Leon shot 44% eFG% and was the best free throw shooter for the Peacocks last year, hitting 84.7% of them. Another scorer, Jenkins took 34.5% of the teams shots, 16th in the nation. Jenkins will prove to be the top scorer, with a team best 71 3 pointers made but he has struggled inside the three point line shooting just 36.8%.

St. Peter’s has improved every year in wins under head coach John Dunne. They also won 5 out of their last 6 regular season games at the end of the year. Yes from 5 to 6 to 11 doesn’t seem like a lot but the defense has steadily improved in many metrics which culminated in 14th in turnover ratio, 88th in 2pt FG% defense and great rates in blocks and steals.

PREDICTION: This is a middle of the pack team or better in 2009-10 with the chance of being a real contender in 2010-11. However I will predict that St. Peter’s will win a MAAC Tournament game. Their last win? March 5 2006.

First off I know I speak for myself and this site when I say:

• We at Siena Saints Blog thoroughly enjoy basketball, MAAC Basketball and Siena basketball and have been thankful for all the access we have been able to have.
• We are happy to provide posts and information to you, the fans, on Siena freely and (hopefully) without too much bias. I wouldn’t say that we thought that Siena was going to beat Louisville by 10 but we did recognize the facts: Siena had a great shot to beat the Cardinals and almost did.

Obviously it is safe to say that there was not an easy fallout when Brady left to go to James Madison. If you didn’t think so, try to judge the tone from a scathing Poughkeepsie Journal editorial:

Despite signing a four-year contract extension eight months prior, Brady joined James Madison 16 days after losing his final game for Marist.

The coach didn’t just leave three years left on his deal, and didn’t just allegedly contact and steal Marist recruits on his way out the door. He retarded Marist’s progression toward becoming a better basketball program. In the process, he stepped on everyone that helped him leave town.

Look I know that when you are a part of the local paper it is easy to take sides on this one. When you went to Marist and you’re still going to need the Marist access to write stories, it makes it even easier to take this side. But everyone else around takes this side too, there has to be another side. Why not this one:

Can We Forget About (Suing) Brady Already? by Ryan

You might hear from locals that Matt Brady is Marist’s equivalent of Bernie Madoff; he’s the Marist equivalent of a scam artist. He built on someone elses foundation and then walked away as it fell apart. Maybe that makes him more of a mortgage broker or a subprime lender.

If that’s all true then Chuck Martin needs to be Marist basketball’s stimulus package.

Marist’s own shovel ready project has to be invested in as he takes the task of rebuilding this team. He has proven to recruit players to stay long term from the local metro areas of New York City and New Jersey. Best case scenario: Martin can make the school into a regional recruiting power, something other coaches have had a tough time to do.

Look at what Brady did for Marist. Brady recruited players such as one from Virginia who left after a year, a player from the US Virgin Islands who proved to be a role player, a player who didn’t speak much English (if any) and left, junior college players who couldn’t stay longer than two years and a player who thought he was a star and never saw the court. There’s a good chance that Martin will do better for Marist if given the proper resources.

There’s only one reason that Marist would seek to do this: money. Marist wants monetary damages for Brady’s breach of contract. There has to be a better resource for Marist’s money than attorneys fees for a difficult case.

Maybe they should invest in Chuck Martin. Invest in his ability to recruit players. R.J. Hall was on the MAAC All-Rookie team and Martin was able to get a lot of great play out of outgoing senior Ryan Schneider and won double digit games.

It seemed that the school was able to pull some positive news out of the situation when Brady left. When Brady left the school took the image of that he didn’t want to be here anyway, so why not let him go and hire someone who might want to be here for longer than four years.

Marist is going to go through a long rebuilding process but the only way to do it is to focus on what is happening in the present. This basketball team can improve in the next two years to make a run in 2011 or 2012. All of the teams that have won championships in the MAAC have had to face a rebuilding process. There are teams, like Marist and Loyola that have tried the doom and gloom approach, grabbing transfers and hoping star play will carry them, it hasn’t worked. The real way to win in this league is to rebuild from square one.

When Siena fired Rob Lanier, Fran McCaffery took it upon himself to build a team that could contend. His first signee was Kenny Hasbrouck, look where that got them.

More to come tomorrow as we ask a legal expert about these issues…

Chuck Martin has his Marist team playing very will in his first year in Poughkeepsie. The Red Foxes most recently beat up an undefeated [in conference] Niagara team this past Sunday. Marist hung with Siena for thirty minutes in their first meeting, until Kenny Hasbrouck just completely took over.

It will again be important for the Saints to contain (comeback player of the year Ryan Schneider. Schneider is averaging 16.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, good for fourth and second in the MAAC respectively. He scored just 11 points in Albany last month. David Devizen is coming off a 23 point effort against Niagara and also having a solid year for Martin. Marist runs a very efficient offense, boasting the best 3PT FG% in the MAAC (39.7%), more than 4% above any other team. The Saints will likely look to attack down low, as both Ryan Rossiter and Alex Franklyn had monster games against Marist during their last meeting.

After tonight’s game, Siena will head straight to Bridgeport, CT and prepare for Saturday’s game against Fairfield.

After finishing 73-50 in four years at Marist, Matt Brady decided now was the time to move on. He chose his next challenge to be rehabilitating a team that won 13 games last year. Though his transition marks a great time for a fresh start with new head coach Chuck Martin.

(photo: GoRedFoxes.com) Martin said, “… I preach to thee.. less threes, more up tempo, then more microphones!”

He will have his work cut out for him. Though he did handle the media. I was going to link the other appearances listed on GoRedFoxes.com, but they led to nowhere. Which might be the theme to this upcoming season.

Any time you have to replace 43% of your roster and 70% of your scoring from last year, you might feel like your season might lead to nowhere. Worse off is when your former head coach takes the players he has recruited with him to James Madison, you’re back to square one. Siena faced this situation in a similar way when they ousted Rob Lainer, which seemed to work out for both sides.

Brady inherited a team that won 6 games the previous year but that had good young talent, Martin inherits a team with 14 wins but any prediction over 14 wins could be considered a stretch. With that come some welcome additions to the lineup. Recently announced two transfers; junior college transfer Javon Parris will spend his two remaining eligibility years at Marist as well as Boston College trasnsfer Daye Kaba. Kaba will help in 2009-10 while Parris is eligible for this season. Parris is a relative mystery, after leaving the College of Charleston after one year he went to a junior college in Kansas and averaged 11.4 points per game. When he enters the MAAC he might realize he’s not in Kansas anymore. As for Kaba, his future is a relative mystery. He transferred in April, said he considered Loyola (MD) but settled with Marist because…

“The main thing is that Coach Martin recruited me back in high school when he was at St. John’s… Other than that, I really liked the offense- the dribble-drive motion. That fits my game perfectly. Those were the two reasons (for my decision).” – Kaba

Schedule

They will play at Memphis and likely get spanked. Also they will battle twice against Delaware. After hearing Mike and Mike’s “Battle For The Butter” idea, I’m thinking we should try to name this two game series. Though this has become an interesting trend, among others Oregon State has a home and home series this year with D.C. based Howard University.

Speaking of twice; the Siena games are spread out this time as oppose to last year’s two games in one week. First Marist will play the Saints at the Times Union Center Wednesday Night 12/9. Then Siena will travel a little over a month later to pay a visit to Marist on 1/15.

Obviously Brady left the cupboard pretty bare.  He inherited a player who would attract NBA scouts named Jared Jordan and what would become a deadly three point shooter in Will Whittington. With these tools he couldn’t get past Siena for a third time in the Conference Semifinals. Consider that nobody in the above picture, even the cut off bodies and arms, is at Marist anymore (photo: NY Times). When he left, so did his coaches and his recruits. And as for much as the fans at Marist don’t like him for leaving, they could not expect him to stay much longer. Siena fans know this JMU team to be the one that greeted them to the 2008 season by hanging 100 on them, but they went downhill from there. JMU has to go on the road for a BracketBuster game, Marist has to host one… hopefully if the scheduling powers can come up with this matchup on what would be Brady’s first recruiting class’ Senior Night.

Fun Fact

Martin’s career COACHING record against Marist: 2-2
1-1 against Marist at St. John’s. (05-07).
1-1 against Marist at Manhattan (99-00).
Which includes 0-1 at the McCann Center.

Martin’s (Monmouth ’91-93) PLAYING record against Marist: 3-2*
*this is back when Marist and Rider were members of the NEC, not MAAC yet.

Prediction

A weak non-conference schedule will allow Marist to rack up some wins, a blowout loss at Memphis, and unpredictable conference play. Guard David Devezin is good, preseason All MAAC 3rd team good, but undersized and he has to be and should be better than his 9.7 ppg / 50.3% eFG last year. He is bound to get more shots this year and could convert into much higher numbers. A wild card is Blair Academy’s Greek product Alex Vouyoukas who might profile as a duel threat forward who can step out and take threes as well as play inside. Martin inherits three players who red-shirted at Marist who he will need to contribute: Guards DeJuan Goodwin and Kaylen Gregory as well as Forward Lawrence Williams. Martin will probably not hold back in letting his first recruiting class develop with more on the job training.

One surprising note, Marist improved in effective FG% defense each year Brady was at Marist. Using Ken Pomeroy‘s set of innovative stats we can look at how Marist’s defense fared year to year:

From 7th to 1st, In Defense

It will be interesting to see if there is any effect on the defense in the first year of Martin’s system. By national ranking, Brady was able to improve this side of the ball quietly while being labeled as an offensive oriented coach. Marist fluctuated from being a team unable to defend the three point line in Brady’s first two years to a team in the top third of three point defenses. It will be interesting to see what the new three point line does to this defense and if this defense improves.

Fans will probably complain that even though the defense might have improved, it also didn’t let them get key stops in the last few years. One of the more interesting situations was the turn from love of Brady to the angst that he left and how he left. Two things going against Martin are that he was not the first choice, Marist extended offers to a coach who wanted to be in the NBA, to at least two others who withdrew. Martin will have a tough test, especially with an athletic director who was a former assistant basketball coach. Good luck.

I am trying to land a range of where I think Marist will land and I think this season could be a lot like Brady’s first season when the Red Foxes went 11-17. My take for Marist is that they will land 9th and finish under .500 in conference. There might be some very positive moments and a few good road wins but there also might be more than a few blowouts. Of course we might be underestimating them, the MAAC coaches vote slated them for 10th, so concerning us we’re omptimists. But that still leaves Marist playing on Friday night in the Times Union Center. However, in the new format only Canisius has been able to rack up an upset.

Martin is coming from Memphis and knows that Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose aren’t walking into Marist jerseys anytime soon, but he has also been at the heart of programs across the east coast. Before Memphis, he was with Bobby Gonzalez at Manhattan, Bruiser Flint at Drexel and UMass, and Norm Roberts at St. John’s. He will eventually build a tough program to beat but this year won’t be it. But at least the Women’s team is being mentioned in the Sporting News top 25.

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