Seniors Alex Franklin (16.0 ppg) and Edwin Ubiles (14.7 ppg) will look to cement their Player of the Year candidacies in Sunday’s game. Ubiles has shot 37.5% from three point range to lead the Saints starters. Franklin’s 57.3% field goal percentage is second on the team to Ryan Rossiter (14.3 ppg).

It will also be the last home game for fellow starter Ronald Moore, whose assist rate has gone up each year as a Saint; however, Moore is shooting a career low 31.3% from the field. Moore sparked the offense after two poor games on Friday, scoring 8 points and dishing out 8 assists.

The Saints will be facing the most consistent team in the nation. If not in an unusual way, according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, Marist ranks first as the most consistent team in all of Division I basketball. Unfortunately it has been for being consistently bad, losing 20 of their 27 games by double digits this season.

Marist started 0-11 on the season, enters the game 1-16 in conference and lost their last home game by 23 against St. Peter’s. To make matters worse, Redshirt Junior and Boston College transfer Daye Kaba announced that he was leaving Marist to pursue professional basketball opportunities in Europe next season. Since he had a year in residency, Kaba will be graduating Marist in four years.

Freshman Sam Prescott, who impressed early for Marist, was declared academically ineligible for the second semester. Couple that with Villanova transfer center Casiem Drummond never gaining eligibility and leaving, it seemed the hits keep on coming. That might seem bad but it got worse this week when center Naofall Folahan de-committed from Marist during the week.

Marist ranked last in offensive and defensive efficiency in the MAAC. Not only ranking in the bottom but they also ranked last in 2-point Field Goal percentage and 2-point Field Goal percentage defense.

There is a chance we might see Kyle Downey, who was dressed in game clothes last night, tomorrow against the Red Foxes. Downey’s goal was to make it back before the MAAC Basketball Championships begin and it will be something to keep an eye on in this game.

Siena will be aiming for a 17 win regular season in the conference while Marist will be trying to double their win total in the MAAC. Siena will be looking to win their 35th straight at the Times Union Center.

Siena has won the last five meetings against Marist. Pomeroy Ratings projections give the Saints a 99% chance of winning Sunday’s game.

Marist is one of three teams in the nation with one win this season.

It might be too early to talk about this but there is a possibility that Marist does not win a game this year.

Yes Marist tied their 2nd worst start in school history by starting out 0-7. With game probabilities posted today on Kenpom.com, the Red Foxes are a 10% or less underdog in 14 of their 21 remaining games, not counting the “BracketBuster.” So I set out to do some research in contacting friend of the site, Ken Pomeroy.

Ryan (Siena Saints Blog): You have [Marist] as underdogs in every game except this Sunday against Binghamton. I was wondering if you could run the numbers to see the chances they could go winless in 2009-10.

I know there might be a few factors that might change (ie: two players come back for Marist after being suspended/leave on Sunday plus Binghamton is bad)

Unbelievably, the Marist record for worst start is 0-12, so at least they can look up. Thank you!

I received a quick response from the friend of the site:

Ken Pomeroy (Kenpom.com): Just for the Marist faithful, I’ve added the chance of going winless for all teams. Looks like Marist leads the nation with their nearly 3% chance! Seems like yesterday they were owning the league.

You can find it on the Marist team page. I love these stats by the way and thank goodness for automation. Yes, we’re not able to run some probabilities on games like tournament games that play on back to back games, but we get a lot of good data out of this. Marist only has two unlisted games on this schedule: the BracketBuster game and their first MAAC Tournament game. Even with those two the odds can’t get much better.

Marist does not look like a good offensive team at all right now but they get Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond and all-Rookie team member RJ Hall back after his academic suspension for Sunday’s game against Binghamton.

This will probably be their best chance to win before entering conference play. Boston College transfer Daye Kaba has disappointed so far and Marist has put up a bunch of statistical oddities. Only one player (Kaba) has more assists than turnovers (by a margin of 1) and the team has shot 53.9% from the Free throw line (344th in the nation, of 347).

There are currently 9 winless teams in all of Division I.

Warning! I’m not on the Niagara bandwagon.

I don’t profess to any biases but I just don’t think this team has it anymore. A team that graduated a tough inside player to replace like Benson Egemonye will find him hard to replace. A team that has traditionally used very little of its bench, so little that it was 334th in the nation in the use of their bench, will need to figure out how to replace some production to keep its top tier status.

Another red flag you ask? This team relies too heavily on the three point shot and with the new three point line, it will have to start hurting them soon. Niagara shot 39.3% of its shots from 3 point land in 2009. Yet three pointers have only been 31.9% of their points or less in over the last 5 years. The new three point line led to decreased shots and decreased efficiency last year, expect more of the same.

3 point shots out of total field goals, Last 5 Years
2009: 39.3%
2008: 40.1%
2007: 37.6%
2006: 40.3%
2005: 39.3%

By the way, Niagara shot 30.9% from 3 point range, 305th in the nation last year.

Here’s another negative; Tyrone Lewis is NOT going to make his run for player of the year. He has not shown to become an efficient offensive force for the Purple Eagles throughout the last few years. Lewis’ field goal percentage has actually regressed over the last three years. This is probably why his points per game only jumped by 0.1 last year. Lewis took 28% of the teams shots last year, first on Niagara and 199th for an individual player in the nation. Considering there are 1720 players who start (344 teams times 5 starting spots) that is a ton of shots. Teams might let Lewis shoot next year if he doesn’t show improvement on his shot.

Even though he shot more threes last year which could contribute to the regression, there is another underlying problem. Lewis has regressed as a 2 point shooter as well. From 50.0%, to 47.3% all the way down to 34.5% last year, Lewis has not capitalized enough to be an elite team-leading scorer.

Niagara might be helped if Rob Garrison takes more of the shots. Garrison had a great year last year, shooting 51.5% from 2 point range, a 48.5% eFG% while taking only 19.3% of the team’s shots. Junior point guard Anthony Nelson is a good leader on the floor, with a 28.4% assist rate, good for 126th in the nation last year.

The offense could improve this coming year. They were a 47.6% eFG team, good for 226th in the nation last year. If they can get better from 3 point range, this team could be a threatening offense. However, they just shoot too much to get any momentum going from beyond the arc. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the MAAC Championship Game against Siena. Niagara shot 3 of 18 in the 2nd half from beyond the arc, after shooting 6 of 19 to keep the score tied at halftime.

One reason they might continue to be a top team in a lot of defensive metrics is their schedule strength. Their non-conference schedule was slightly above average last year, however produced only one win against a top 100 kempom ranked team (Illinois State). Niagara opens at Auburn and plays a common Siena opponent in NEC runner up Mount Saint Mary’s.

PREDICTION: I think Niagara is one of the four best teams in the conference, but the Purple Eagles being guaranteed that 2nd spot behind Siena is not a sound investment. I think Rider is that 2nd place team.

Marist
2009: 10th Place. 10-23 (4-14)
2010: 10th

Marist did not begin the Chuck Martin era well, but reinforcements are on the way.

Listed as a Junior transfer, Daye Kaba comes from Boston College to deliever some athleticism to the offense in Poughkeepise. Kaba, in limited play at BC scored a total of 16 points in 16 total games. The transfers that tend to land in the conference tend to become the team’s go-to player. Expect Kaba to take a high percentage of shots. In a new offense, Ryan Schneider led the Red Foxes taking 25.2% of the team’s shots; Louie McCroskey the year before took 30.3%. He and Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond will provide an instant presence for Marist.

Drummond played sparingly as a freshman and then was a contributor in 2007-08 team. Drummond scored 2 points in Villanova’s 84-72 win over Siena in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. In Drummond’s 21 games in 07-08, he managed a 52.4 eFG% and highest percentages in offensive and defensive rebounds. He will have the chance to be a legitimate inside presence during the MAAC season. Drummond cannot play until the first semester is over.

By the way two plugs. I love the enhanced box scores on the kenpom.com team pages. When you’re not checking here for information about the MAAC (of course) and you like Marist Basketball, check out Marist alum Greg Hrinya‘s blog: Marist Dribble Drive. He thinks Marist will finish in the middle of the pack.

Greg’s notes on the freshmen (via e-mail):

- Devin Price could start and has great athleticism at the point. 6′ 1″ PG that can compete in dunk contests.
- Menelik Watson looked a little heavy and out of shape. Kind of disappointed although his muscles are huge. [Greg talked to Watson this summer, highly recommended, check it out!]
- Rob Johnson looked good and is probably vying with Dorvell Carter for the starting spot at the 4.
- Candon Rusin is this team’s [Will] Whittington. He’s the best shooter on the team, hard to say how he fits in.
- Sam Prescott is probably the best overall freshman in terms of freakish athleticism. He could start but I bet Martin goes with more experienced guys.
-Anell Alexis had a knee injury in the offseason.

What might be worse for this team are the unexpected losses. The Red Foxes lost David Devezin to unexpected exhaustion of eligibility. Somewhere along the way from Texas A&M to Junior College to Marist, paperwork was not sure about one of his first years being an injury red-shirt year. Lawrence Williams made his departure seem like a mutual break up.

Marist starts out its first six games on the road this year. They will then follow that up by playing 3 of their next 4 against America East teams (Boston, Binghamton, Vermont). Marist won 10 games last year, 5 of which were against non-conference opponents.

IMPORTANT STAT: In games decided by 6 points or less, Marist went 5-8. So as much as I want to say Marist can turn it around, Marist barely won half of their games. 3 of those 5 wins were decided by one possession or less!

The Marist offense last year was unsurprisingly inept. Posting some of the worst margins in 2 point field goal percentage, percentage of shots blocked, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding numbers. Once teams figured this dribble drive offense out, they forced Marist to take threes which they would (36.6% of shots were 3 pointers last year 81st in the nation).

The MAAC is already a high tempo league so bringing this high tempo offense to the conference hasn’t seemed to pay off yet. Teams have decided to just make Marist beat a variety of zones which made Marist’s offense look generic during the year.

PREDICTION: This team will gain some more experience but it will be difficult for them to break 14 wins. This team is rebuilding the right way though and a breakthrough could be predicted for 2010. Just don’t count on it this year.

St. Peter’s
2009: 2nd Place. 11-19 (8-10)
2010: 8th

This is the team to watch for 2010.

With exactly 0 seniors on the roster, this team will be trying to make the stride to have a big 2010-11 season. Junior College transfer Jeron Belin and redshirt freshman Darius Conley could be one of the top 4 frontcourts in the MAAC.

The reason St. Peter’s will be a good team next year: the improvement of Wesley Jenkins, Nick Leon and Ryan Bacon. All three experienced juniors, Bacon led the team in 527% eFG% and is the inside presence for the Peacocks. The only problem Bacon has had is foul trouble, he averages 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

Leon is an all around scorer who took 29.7% of the team’s shots last year. Leon shot 44% eFG% and was the best free throw shooter for the Peacocks last year, hitting 84.7% of them. Another scorer, Jenkins took 34.5% of the teams shots, 16th in the nation. Jenkins will prove to be the top scorer, with a team best 71 3 pointers made but he has struggled inside the three point line shooting just 36.8%.

St. Peter’s has improved every year in wins under head coach John Dunne. They also won 5 out of their last 6 regular season games at the end of the year. Yes from 5 to 6 to 11 doesn’t seem like a lot but the defense has steadily improved in many metrics which culminated in 14th in turnover ratio, 88th in 2pt FG% defense and great rates in blocks and steals.

PREDICTION: This is a middle of the pack team or better in 2009-10 with the chance of being a real contender in 2010-11. However I will predict that St. Peter’s will win a MAAC Tournament game. Their last win? March 5 2006.