Purdue dominated from the first minute of the game against St. Peter’s on Friday night. Congrats to those three seniors, Nick Leon, Ryan Bacon, and Wesley Jenkins for reaching the NCAA tournament. As Siena fans, we know what it’s like to come back from a 6 win season, and you should really be proud of what you accomplished.

Boy it really hurt all week not to have Siena in this tournament. I am serious. It’s like withdrawal, we really forget how lucky we were. What sucks even more is I still think it’s going to be a while if we ever even reach that level of success again. But we’ve got some good recruits coming in, so here’s to 2012!

The lead got as large as 19 on a Nick Leon three pointer with 14:34 to go. From there, the Peacocks hit a big drought; going without a point for 5 minutes and 19 seconds. That allowed Siena to take all the momentum and creep back into the game.

The Saints used their defense to transition into offense, getting into the lane and drawing fouls. Siena cut the lead to 5 when John Dunne got a technical foul, and continued to pour on points at the free throw line. St. Peter’s then got a three point play with 3:15 to go to put the lead at 7 and the Saints just could not catch up.

Siena did trail by 3 with 1:07 to go when Mitch Buonaguro intelligently had Owen Wignot foul Ryan Bacon, a 56% free throw shooter, but unfortunately, he hit both. Bacon had a monster game, closing the night with 25 points and 15 rebounds, along with 6 blocks, 4 steals and 2 assists. St. Peter’s senior guard Wesley Jenkins finished with 17 points.

Rossiter closed with yet another double-double; 21 points and 16 rebounds. Trenity Burdine and Stephen Priestly saw extended minutes today none of the key players in Wignot, Downey, and Jackson were on the floor for the Saints’ second half run. Clarence left the game when he aggravated his left ankle.

Siena has not won a game where their opponents have scored more than 70 points, they are 0-8. The Peacocks snapped an 8 game losing streak against the Saints.

The Peacocks boast a BCS win over Alabama earlier in the season, but they find themselves in the middle of the conference and tied with Siena in fifth place, two games back of Fairfield and Iona who are tied for first.

St. Peter’s is led by their star shooting guard Wesley Jenkins, who is leading the team in scoring with 14 points and averaging about 5 rebounds per game.  There is also plenty of other senior leadership on the team as well.   5’11″ point guard Nick Leon is averaging about 10 points a game, 6’7″ forward Ryan Bacon is an excellent presence inside scoring 8 points a game and grabbing 6 rebounds per game, and 6’6″ forward Jeron Belin is third on the team in scoring with 9 points a game.  The Peacocks will be at a little bit of a size disadvantage to the Saints, though, and for a team that averages only 34 rebounds they will need to find a way to keep up with the Saints on the glass or else the game could get away from them.

The Peacocks are only averaging about 56 points a game, but they are an excellent defensive team, only giving up about 60 points a game.  For a team like Siena, who has had some issues shooting the ball as of late, there will be a need for a concerted effort to get high percentage shots and shoot the ball effectively.

That issue may be resolved more easily now that the Saints have welcomed back Clarence Jackson from injury.  The senior guard helped the Saints to wins over Marist and Canisius the last two games out, scoring 19 and 15 points in each respective contest.  Rahkeem Brookins continues to excel running the point, averaging an assist to turnover ratio of 4:1 over his last six games.  And OD Anosike appears to making the sophomore leap as he has averaged almost 13 points and 10 rebounds over the last four games.

Things are getting better for the Saints, but Owen Wignot’s thumb injury on his shooting hand continues to bother him, and Davis Martens may still be recovering from a sprained ankle.  The Saints will still need to continue to nurse injuries and continue to get the best out of the players and rotations they put on the floor to try and get back in to the MAAC conference race.  Iona and Fairfield are probably not coming back to the pack, so the Saints will need every win that they can get, and a difficult road win at St. Peter’s on Friday night would do a lot to build confidence for the Saints.

Siena will play four of their next five games at home, beginning on Monday night January 24th against the Rider Broncs at the Times Union Center.

Siena will look to continue the momentum from their 17-point win over St. Joseph’s Tuesday night. Siena out rebounded St. Joseph’s 40-29 and totaled 18 offensive rebounds Tuesday night. Ryan Rossiter set a new career high in offensive rebounds (11), Alex Franklin recorded his second straight double-double and Ronald Moore dished out 12 assists for the second straight game.

The Peacocks are led by a pair of talented juniors Wesley Jenkins (14.0 ppg) and Nick Leon (12.1 ppg). Jenkins has scored double digit points in every game but one this year. Ryan Bacon, a 6’7″ forward, is also pulling down nearly 8 rpg. This season St. Peter’s has had some trouble scoring and shoots 26.2% from behind the arc, good for 332nd in the nation. Their offense ranks 303rd in Kenpom’s efficiency ratings, ranking them 9th among MAAC teams, only above winless Marist.

Siena is currently tied with Missouri with 26 consecutive home wins, trailing Dayton (27), Pittsburgh (29) and Kansas (49). A win would give the Saints their first three game win streak of the season.

Warning! I’m not on the Niagara bandwagon.

I don’t profess to any biases but I just don’t think this team has it anymore. A team that graduated a tough inside player to replace like Benson Egemonye will find him hard to replace. A team that has traditionally used very little of its bench, so little that it was 334th in the nation in the use of their bench, will need to figure out how to replace some production to keep its top tier status.

Another red flag you ask? This team relies too heavily on the three point shot and with the new three point line, it will have to start hurting them soon. Niagara shot 39.3% of its shots from 3 point land in 2009. Yet three pointers have only been 31.9% of their points or less in over the last 5 years. The new three point line led to decreased shots and decreased efficiency last year, expect more of the same.

3 point shots out of total field goals, Last 5 Years
2009: 39.3%
2008: 40.1%
2007: 37.6%
2006: 40.3%
2005: 39.3%

By the way, Niagara shot 30.9% from 3 point range, 305th in the nation last year.

Here’s another negative; Tyrone Lewis is NOT going to make his run for player of the year. He has not shown to become an efficient offensive force for the Purple Eagles throughout the last few years. Lewis’ field goal percentage has actually regressed over the last three years. This is probably why his points per game only jumped by 0.1 last year. Lewis took 28% of the teams shots last year, first on Niagara and 199th for an individual player in the nation. Considering there are 1720 players who start (344 teams times 5 starting spots) that is a ton of shots. Teams might let Lewis shoot next year if he doesn’t show improvement on his shot.

Even though he shot more threes last year which could contribute to the regression, there is another underlying problem. Lewis has regressed as a 2 point shooter as well. From 50.0%, to 47.3% all the way down to 34.5% last year, Lewis has not capitalized enough to be an elite team-leading scorer.

Niagara might be helped if Rob Garrison takes more of the shots. Garrison had a great year last year, shooting 51.5% from 2 point range, a 48.5% eFG% while taking only 19.3% of the team’s shots. Junior point guard Anthony Nelson is a good leader on the floor, with a 28.4% assist rate, good for 126th in the nation last year.

The offense could improve this coming year. They were a 47.6% eFG team, good for 226th in the nation last year. If they can get better from 3 point range, this team could be a threatening offense. However, they just shoot too much to get any momentum going from beyond the arc. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the MAAC Championship Game against Siena. Niagara shot 3 of 18 in the 2nd half from beyond the arc, after shooting 6 of 19 to keep the score tied at halftime.

One reason they might continue to be a top team in a lot of defensive metrics is their schedule strength. Their non-conference schedule was slightly above average last year, however produced only one win against a top 100 kempom ranked team (Illinois State). Niagara opens at Auburn and plays a common Siena opponent in NEC runner up Mount Saint Mary’s.

PREDICTION: I think Niagara is one of the four best teams in the conference, but the Purple Eagles being guaranteed that 2nd spot behind Siena is not a sound investment. I think Rider is that 2nd place team.

Marist
2009: 10th Place. 10-23 (4-14)
2010: 10th

Marist did not begin the Chuck Martin era well, but reinforcements are on the way.

Listed as a Junior transfer, Daye Kaba comes from Boston College to deliever some athleticism to the offense in Poughkeepise. Kaba, in limited play at BC scored a total of 16 points in 16 total games. The transfers that tend to land in the conference tend to become the team’s go-to player. Expect Kaba to take a high percentage of shots. In a new offense, Ryan Schneider led the Red Foxes taking 25.2% of the team’s shots; Louie McCroskey the year before took 30.3%. He and Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond will provide an instant presence for Marist.

Drummond played sparingly as a freshman and then was a contributor in 2007-08 team. Drummond scored 2 points in Villanova’s 84-72 win over Siena in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. In Drummond’s 21 games in 07-08, he managed a 52.4 eFG% and highest percentages in offensive and defensive rebounds. He will have the chance to be a legitimate inside presence during the MAAC season. Drummond cannot play until the first semester is over.

By the way two plugs. I love the enhanced box scores on the kenpom.com team pages. When you’re not checking here for information about the MAAC (of course) and you like Marist Basketball, check out Marist alum Greg Hrinya‘s blog: Marist Dribble Drive. He thinks Marist will finish in the middle of the pack.

Greg’s notes on the freshmen (via e-mail):

- Devin Price could start and has great athleticism at the point. 6′ 1″ PG that can compete in dunk contests.
- Menelik Watson looked a little heavy and out of shape. Kind of disappointed although his muscles are huge. [Greg talked to Watson this summer, highly recommended, check it out!]
- Rob Johnson looked good and is probably vying with Dorvell Carter for the starting spot at the 4.
- Candon Rusin is this team’s [Will] Whittington. He’s the best shooter on the team, hard to say how he fits in.
- Sam Prescott is probably the best overall freshman in terms of freakish athleticism. He could start but I bet Martin goes with more experienced guys.
-Anell Alexis had a knee injury in the offseason.

What might be worse for this team are the unexpected losses. The Red Foxes lost David Devezin to unexpected exhaustion of eligibility. Somewhere along the way from Texas A&M to Junior College to Marist, paperwork was not sure about one of his first years being an injury red-shirt year. Lawrence Williams made his departure seem like a mutual break up.

Marist starts out its first six games on the road this year. They will then follow that up by playing 3 of their next 4 against America East teams (Boston, Binghamton, Vermont). Marist won 10 games last year, 5 of which were against non-conference opponents.

IMPORTANT STAT: In games decided by 6 points or less, Marist went 5-8. So as much as I want to say Marist can turn it around, Marist barely won half of their games. 3 of those 5 wins were decided by one possession or less!

The Marist offense last year was unsurprisingly inept. Posting some of the worst margins in 2 point field goal percentage, percentage of shots blocked, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding numbers. Once teams figured this dribble drive offense out, they forced Marist to take threes which they would (36.6% of shots were 3 pointers last year 81st in the nation).

The MAAC is already a high tempo league so bringing this high tempo offense to the conference hasn’t seemed to pay off yet. Teams have decided to just make Marist beat a variety of zones which made Marist’s offense look generic during the year.

PREDICTION: This team will gain some more experience but it will be difficult for them to break 14 wins. This team is rebuilding the right way though and a breakthrough could be predicted for 2010. Just don’t count on it this year.

St. Peter’s
2009: 2nd Place. 11-19 (8-10)
2010: 8th

This is the team to watch for 2010.

With exactly 0 seniors on the roster, this team will be trying to make the stride to have a big 2010-11 season. Junior College transfer Jeron Belin and redshirt freshman Darius Conley could be one of the top 4 frontcourts in the MAAC.

The reason St. Peter’s will be a good team next year: the improvement of Wesley Jenkins, Nick Leon and Ryan Bacon. All three experienced juniors, Bacon led the team in 527% eFG% and is the inside presence for the Peacocks. The only problem Bacon has had is foul trouble, he averages 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

Leon is an all around scorer who took 29.7% of the team’s shots last year. Leon shot 44% eFG% and was the best free throw shooter for the Peacocks last year, hitting 84.7% of them. Another scorer, Jenkins took 34.5% of the teams shots, 16th in the nation. Jenkins will prove to be the top scorer, with a team best 71 3 pointers made but he has struggled inside the three point line shooting just 36.8%.

St. Peter’s has improved every year in wins under head coach John Dunne. They also won 5 out of their last 6 regular season games at the end of the year. Yes from 5 to 6 to 11 doesn’t seem like a lot but the defense has steadily improved in many metrics which culminated in 14th in turnover ratio, 88th in 2pt FG% defense and great rates in blocks and steals.

PREDICTION: This is a middle of the pack team or better in 2009-10 with the chance of being a real contender in 2010-11. However I will predict that St. Peter’s will win a MAAC Tournament game. Their last win? March 5 2006.