Our Cut: The 2010 Siena Saints

2009: Siena – Oh. State

2009: One Shining Moment

2008: Siena – Vandy

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This will be the first meeting between the two schools, and this will be the first time the Saints travel to the west coast since their 2008 BracketBuster 93-70 win at Boise State. The tip is at 2:30 EST, broadcast on CBS and CBS HD.

The Saints will bring their high octane offense against their second straight Big Ten NCAA tournament opponent.  Last year the Saints needed double-overtime to overcome the #8 Ohio State Buckeyes in the NCAA Tournament, before losing to #1 Louisville after holding the lead with five minutes left to play.

The Boilermakers will be without Junior All-Big Ten Forward Robbie Hummel, who tore his ACL late in the year and will miss the rest of the season.  Hummel was averaging 17 points and 7 rebounds a game.  Since Hummel’s exit, the Boilermakers have struggled, going 3-2 and culminating in a 27-point loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue scored 11 points going into halftime, their lowest total since 1950 and the lowest ever in a Big Ten tournament game.

Purdue was ranked in the top 5 for most of the year, and were on their way to a possible #1 seed in the tournament before the loss of Hummel.  They went undefeated in non-conference play with wins over Tennessee, Wake Forest, Alabama, and West Virginia and tied for first in the Big Ten during the regular season with Ohio State.  While the loss of Hummel is significant, this is still a Big Ten team with major conference athletes and experience.

Hummel’s exit won’t mean that they will be without effective scorers.  6’10 Junior C JaJuan Johnson averages 15 points a game while grabbing 7 rebounds per contest, and 6’4 Junior G E’Twaun Moore averages 17 points a game.  It will come down to these two players finding a way to get to their averages, and having others step up, to keep up with the Saints in the scoring column.

While Purdue should still be able to get their points against the Saints, Coach McCaffery has been preaching to his players all week that this Purdue team is most likely the best defensive team they will face all year, if not the best overall team they have met.  The Boilermakers hold their opponents to an average of 60 points per game.  Purdue will play a traditional, slow-it-down/ugly-it-up Big 10 style game, even though they average over 70 points a game.  The biggest difference in both teams, and the one area that may be the deciding factor on Friday, is rebounding margin.

Purdue averages less rebounds per game than their opponents (33), while Siena averages more than 4 boards per game against theirs (38).  It’s going to be on Siena to hold the rebounding edge, and then to get out on the break and create quick scoring opportunities.  If Siena can produce off those breaks, it will allow them to set up their 1-2-2 press, which has been effective across the board at getting teams sideways all year.

Siena will be paced by Ronald Moore at the point, who leads the nation in assists.  The Siena frontcourt is led by MAAC conference player of the year, 6’5 F Alex Franklin who averages 16 points and 8 rebounds per game.  He is joined by Junior C, 6’9 235lb. Ryan Rossiter, who averages 14 points per game and 11 rebounds per game, getting double-doubles in 21 games this year.  While JaJuan Johnson may be the superior athlete, Rossiter has developed in to a player that many experts have said could play in the Big East.  Rossiter’s craftiness and basketball IQ, paired with the athleticism of Franklin in the frontcourt, will go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.  The Saints’ wingman is 6’6 Edwin Ubiles, who is averaging 15 ppg.  Ubiles has battled injury all year, but finished with more than 20 points in the last two regular season contests and a clutch performance in the conference tournament finals scoring 27 against Fairfield.

In last year’s NCAA tournament, Rossiter went for 16 and 15 against Ohio St. while Edwin scored 20, and Edwin led the Saints against the Cardinals with 24 points and 8 rebounds in the losing effort.

One mitigating factor for the Saints on Friday is the possible loss of two guard Clarence Jackson who was averaging 14 points per game, but rolled his ankle in practice over the weekend.  Clarence left Loudonville without crutches, and did practice today, but McCaffery still said that his playing time will be determined on whether or not he can be as explosive defensively and scoring wise as he is capable of being, and not just game ready.  He is the Saints main three point threat, so others like Ubiles, reserve guard Kyle Griffin, and probably starter in Jackson’s place Sophomore Kyle Downey will need to step up.

Neither team is much of a threat from three, though, as they both average 5 or less made per game at a clip of 32% made per team.  Spectators can expect to see a clean, hotly contested game as neither team to turns it over much, each averaging less than 12 turnovers per contest, and fouls should be kept to a minimum – Purdue fouls an average of 19 times a game, but Siena leads the nations in fouls committed with 14 per game.  If outside shooting is not the deciding factor the better rebounding team will be able to impart it’s pace on the other, and in NCAA tournament games, the team that can dictate the pace is the team that usually finds the way to win.

Siena will, rarely, have a decided advantage over a team at the free throw line. Siena shoots 66.4% good for 251th in the country but the Cardinals shoot 64.2% (302nd) from the charity stripe. To put that in prespective, only Syracuse and play-in game loser Alabama State are the only NCAA Tournament teams that have worst free throw percentages than the Cardinals.

This year, there is not a lot of separation between the top eight teams in the country and the next 30 teams. Louisville has proven to lay some eggs in the past this season with losses against NIT teams UNLV and Notre Dame as well as NCAA Tournament teams Minnesota and Western Kentucky.

Siena cannot rely on the three to win this ballgame, they shot 24 threes in the win over Ohio State, but they will need to convert better than 6 of 24 if they get forced into a zone again and have to settle for threes. Siena played a lot better on offense in the 2nd half and overtime periods when they were able to flash at the middle and use some hi-lo action to get the ball to Ryan Rossiter and Alex Franklin. It is clear Siena likes to score from the inside out, the more the Saints put the ball in the hands of their big men, the better shape they will be in. So expect more of that if you see more zone from the Cardinals, and expect Clarence Jackson to play more minutes and be unafraid to shoot.

Siena doesn’t have much to lose in this situation. If the Saints can keep this game as close as Morehead State was able to do in the first half, you have to wonder if the pressure of the NCAA Tournament will start to bear on the Cardinals with every free throw.

Siena is 1-0 all time against Louisville with a win in the 1953-54 season.

“We were never in the game mentally the way we needed to be,” Matta said after the eighth-seeded Buckeyes were bounced in the opening round for the first time since 2001. “We never had a flow, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t handle pressure.”

“Give Siena credit. They made some huge plays down the stretch and we didn’t do some things we needed to do.”

Jeff Goodman has high praise for Siena and Ronald Moore’s performance, even though it says “Craig Moore”. The NY Times has a recap of Siena’s dramatic victory and some comments on their The Quad blog:

One more thing about midmajors: Siena is the first Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference team to win games in the N.C.A.A. tournament two years in a row. With the Big Ten at 4-3 and the A.C.C. at 3-4, maybe it’s time to listen to the coaches like Niagara’s Joe Michalich, who told Pete Thamel after the bids were announced: “The beauty of this tournament is not Oklahoma State playing Clemson.”

Even though both games went to overtime, anyone without a rooting interest would have to agree that a little guy (Siena) against a big guy (Ohio State) had a lot more juice than two also-rans from big conferences (Florida State and Wisconsin) slugging it out.

Louisville wore down Morehead State and pulled away for a 20 point win. With their win the 1 vs. 16 matchup is now a perfect 100-0 for the #1 seeds. C.J. Brown thinks that, like Memphis last year, the free throw line will be the Cardinals achilles heel in this tournament. They will apply relentless pressure and see how the Saints can hang with the overall #1 seed.

#9 Siena shot 33% from the field, their lowest percentage of the season. Siena‘s 51 rebounds are a season high, 21 of those being offensive rebounds which is also a season high.

Alex Franklin (10 pts, 13 rebs) and Ryan Rossiter (16 pts, 15 rebs) both delivered double doubles and Rossiter hit all 6 of his free throws down the stretch. Evan Turner finished with 25 points to lead the Buckeyes.

Siena turned it over 21 times, more than #8 Ohio State‘s 19, but the Saints were able to make critical shots down the stretch late in this ballgame. All five starters scored in double figures and Moore made his only two three point field goals in the overtime periods.

Someone doubted, but there’s no doubt this is one of the best games of all time for the Siena program.

This is Siena’s 2nd straight tournament appearance, first time the Saints made consecutive appearances. Siena is now 4-4 all time in the NCAA Tournament. Siena will play #1 seed Louisville Sunday at 5:20. More to come…

Siena Saints Blog: What’s been the factor crucial the Buckeyes success this year?

Matt Barker: I think one of the factors for the success that Ohio State has had this year is the emergence of the freshmen, and in particular, William Buford. You have to remember the Buckeyes’ most experienced player (and arguably the best going into this season), junior David Lighty, has been out since December with a broken bone in his foot. A healthy Lighty would have taken minutes away from Buford, who has really stepped up his game as of late.

Of course, the play of Evan Turner has been the most important factor this season. Just look at the last game, he had 22 points and 10 rebounds. He can pretty much do it all.

SSB: What’s the critical weakness Ohio State has shown all year?

Barker: If there has been one weakness, it’s the play at point guard. No one, including head coach Thad Matta, would have ever guessed that Mike Conley would be leave after his freshman year and become an NBA lottery pick. Had you asked me before the 2006-07 season when the Buckeyes advanced to the championship game, I thought he would stay on campus for three or four years. And when he signed his Letter of Intent, I assumed he was more or less a thrown in to get his best friend and high school teammate, Greg Oden, to come to Columbus.

With Conley’s departure, that meant former point guard Jamar Butler, moved back to the position and Matta had to scramble to look for a backup in the JUCO ranks. Then this year he added another point guard from a junior college, Jeremie Simmons, and recruited freshman Anthony Crater. Ten games into the season, Crater decides he’s not getting enough playing time and transfers to South Florida. That gave P.J. Hill an opportunity to play more and eventually he’s earned a spot in the starting lineup, getting better with each game, while Simmons has benefited from coming off the bench.

SSB: What match up will you be keeping a close eye on?

Barker: The question before every Ohio State game is: Will B.J. Mullens show up and play? If he leaves after his freshman year, he’s a lock to be first round pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. You are not going to find too many 7-foot, 265-pound centers that can run the floor as well as he can in transition. When he gets his minutes, works hard to get open in the low post, and is fed the ball enough, Mullens can be a beast and he’s hard to stop. But will that happen? Last game against Purdue, he scored just three points and 12 minutes and he never seemed to have his head in the game.