SienaSaintsBlog: How much has changed/how much has stayed the same under new coach Mitch Henderson?

Jon Solomon/Princeton Basketball: The offense looks a touch different but I think that’s more based on personnel than a seismic philosophical shift. You’ll see old formations out of the Carril and Carmody playbooks with modern adjustments.

Even with the losses of Dan Mavraides and Kareem Maddox, this is a team built on solid defense. That’s helped the Tigers win games where they’ve struggled to score.

Siena prepares for Princeton Thursday (courtesy SienaSaints.com)

SienaSaintsBlog: This team has won five of their last six after starting 1-5: what’s been the key to the last month or so of success?

Jon Solomon/Princeton Basketball: Two things:

1) The development of T.J. Bray as a point guard and a more confident scorer. What began as “guard by committee” is now Bray’s full time gig.
2) Adding Mack Darrow to the starting lineup in place of Brendan Connolly. Darrow is a better passer and has a 22 assist-to-two turnover ratio these past six games.

SienaSaintsBlog: Who should the Saints priority be to stop on the defensive end?

Jon Solomon/Princeton Basketball: Ian Hummer has proven to be the best player on the floor during most of Princeton’s games. He’s averaging 18.0 ppg (which would be the most by a Tiger since 1971-72 if that number holds through the end of the season) and 7.9 rebounds. With the addition of a three point shot this season, he’s been a load for other teams to contain.

SienaSaintsBlog: What matchup are you looking forward to in this game?

Jon Solomon/Princeton Basketball: I’m curious to see how Siena’s guards match up with Princeton’s backcourt. Looking forward to my first trip to the Times Union Center too!

SienaSaintsBlog - What are your thoughts from watching Fordham against Hampton and Manhattan?

John Templon/NYC Buckets - Tom Percora is working with a very young team. Sure there are a few veteran leaders like junior forward Chris Gaston, but the main core of this team are freshmen and sophomores and it shows. Fordham especially struggles in the half-court on offense. The Rams just seem to struggle to find any consistent ball movement against strong pressure from veteran teams. That said, the young guys are particularly athletic and if they can get out and run they have the ability to put some points on the board. Also, I saw two very different games out of the veteran front court. Against Hampton Kervin Bristol and Gaston basically won the game for Fordham. Against Manhattan they both played poorly and it ended up a blowout loss. Those two guys have to come to play every night for the Rams to be competitive.

SienaSaintsBlog - Staring at Ken Pomeroy’s numbers – this team looks really bad on offense. what are they able to do on offense and what have they had trouble with?

John Templon/NYC Buckets - You are correct. This team is definitely struggling on offense right now. The Rams are good at getting second-chance opportunities, basically because of Gaston and Bristol. Most of the guards, and especially Devon “Fatty” McMillan want to drive into the paint and score at the rim. Unfortunately that’s also resulted in a lot of turnovers for McMillan. He committed 10 against Manhattan and looked really out of sync against the Jaspers’ pressure. There’s also no real pure shooter on the team. Bryan Smith is the best three-point shooting on the team at 30.8% and Brendan Frazier obviously has the green light (41 attempts, 19.5%), but the whole team is struggling from beyond the arc right now. Outside of Gaston there’s no real go-to scorer on the team.

SienaSaintsBlog - Siena’s game plan has looked to be, some pressure settling into a 2-3 zone – have the Rams had trouble with zones?

John Templon/NYC Buckets - Since that sounds a lot like what Manhattan does on defense my guess is that seems like a sound strategy. Fordham’s struggled against zones because they have a hard time shooting teams out them. The number is now 23.2% post a 7-25 performance against Monmouth on Saturday, but the point obviously still stands. Also, ball pressure really seems to bother Fordham’s young guards.

SienaSaintsBlog - This team is really young, which young player will Saints fans want to keep an eye on?

John Templon/NYC Buckets - I’ve already talked a bit about McMillan, but definitely keep an eye on him because he’s such an aggressive attacker of the basket. He’ll probably come into his own during his sophomore and junior seasons, it just takes young players some time to learn how to deal with the contact with the bigger bodies they encounter at the collegiate level. I was also impressed with Marvin Dominique in the game against Hampton. The sophomore forward has a decent face-up game and has been regularly getting 13 to 20 minutes in Pecora’s rotation. He’s coming off a 10-point game against Monmouth, so maybe he’ll even get a few more minutes against the Saints.

SienaSaintsBlog - What’s the key matchup of this game?

John Templon/NYC Buckets - The two keys for Fordham to win a game right now is for 1) have Chris Gaston show up, 2) find a secondary scorer. Against Colgate it was McMillan with 20 points. Against Binghamton it was Frazier with 18. Against Hampton it was more of a collective effort in an ugly game. Still, the key is getting that second guy going and thus the key matchup will probably be Evan Hymes and Kyle Downey versus the freshmen backcourt guys for Fordham. How well those two contain McMillan and Frazier will probably determine this game.

SienaSaintsBlog Any concern about Hofstra transfer Chaz Williams and his rare 10 point-10 turnover double double at East Carolina? He still adjusting to the style of play?

Matt Vautour/Daily Hampshire Gazette He’d been mostly terrific until ECU. The Pirates are fifth in the nation in steals so everybody turns the ball over against them to some degree.That said he did try to force some things. Overall though, Chaz Williams is the reason UMass can play this way.

SienaSaintsBlog What aspect of UMass’ game will give the Saints the most trouble? Siena has played up tempo in previous seasons but appears to be adjusting towards a halfcourt offense & 2-3 zone D for this season.

Matt Vautour/Daily Hampshire Gazette It’s hard to say without having seen Siena. UMass’ pace and pressure have given most teams trouble. The Minutemen are pretty long. Other than Williams, most of their roster is at least 6-foot-5 which makes the press that much more effective.

SienaSaintsBlog Siena’s O.D. Anosike has been on fire lately with four straight double-doubles, and a monster 21 point 18 rebound game Monday – who will UMass be able to match up against him with?

Matt Vautour/Daily Hampshire Gazette Sean Carter, a 6-foot-9 senior is pretty solid defensively and freshman Cady Lalanne did a good job containing ECU’s Darrius Morrow late on Tuesday. I image both will spend time on him.

SienaSaintsBlog What weakness in UMass’ game could the Saints potentially exploit?

Matt Vautour/Daily Hampshire Gazette The Minutemen have had fouling issues. If Siena is effective shooting free throws, it could get a lot of chances to make them.

SienaSaintsBlog  How much will this be a home game for UMass? I know that UMass has played games in Springfield in prior seasons.

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican UMass has always done well at Springfield since the MassMutual Center (which was known as the Civic Center until a few years ago) opened in 1972. They have played some games there during intersession, when the UMass students have gone home, and had a probably better atmosphere than they would had on campus. Coach Derek Kellogg is also a Springfield native and went to high school there, so he has a significant rooting fan base. Saying all that, I understand Siena is bringing some fans and that could neutralize it to a modest extent.

SienaSaintsBlog How would you describe UMass’ improvements in up-tempo style as compared to past seasons?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican No question the style in more entertaining and more suited to the type of playesr they have on the roster. They also have a point guard [Hofstra transfer Chaz Williams] who can run it – that’s been a problem in recent years. The question is how their decision making at a fast pace will play out in close games – entering Tuesday’s game at East Carolina [which they won 63-58], they had had only one game [at Miami] in which the possessions in the final minutes were crucial.

SienaSaintsBlog What’s UMass’ biggest strength heading into this game?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican Williams is usually a strength. So is the defense’s ability to create turnovers – more than 20 a game. They occasionally get hot from 3-point range, but more often that’s a liability, not a strength.

SienaSaintsBlog Is depth an issue for UMass? In your last article I saw you referred to Junior forward Sampson Carter heading for hip-surgery. How will that impact UMass’ depth?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican Losing Carter will hurt because he had been playing well. However, they still have nine guys who all make a case to play. They are not identical in what they offer, but in terms of level of contribution, there isn’t that much difference between the starters and the bench. I never want to say an injured player helps a team, but losing Carter will likely make it easier to get minutes for first year forwards Cady Lalanne and Maxie Esho. Both deserve playing time, and Lalanne could soon be a star.

SienaSaintsBlog What is the level of excitement for the MAAC Tournament to be in Springfield?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican Hard to say what the level of MAAC interest will be. They are promoting it hard, and I think the appeal of an automatic NCAA berth will get some local people to the final. Springfield is not an easy market, so I know the organizers are counting on fans to travel for their schools, especially Fairfield and Siena. I don’t really think our region gives enough credit for the quality of play in the MAAC. but I do sense some curiosity building about the tournament.

SienaSaintsBlog To what extent could this event [which gets two teams, Siena & Fairfield, to play games in the arena] bring in the fan base that the MAAC believes they will be able to attract?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican I am not sure I understand the second question. If you are asking whether the teams themselves can be expected to supply fan interest, I believe the organizers are counting on it significantly.

SienaSaintsBlog What type of crowd are we expecting for this event?

Ron Chimelis/Springfield Republican I am looking for a crowd of about 4,000. Anything higher would be a pleasant surprise. UMass is really struggling at the gate, about 2,500 a game, partly as a residual effect for some pretty lackluster seasons lately. However, with both Siena and Fairfield bringing fans for the doubleheader, I am hoping I am underestimating the turnout. Plus it’s a Friday night – that should help.

SienaSaintsBlog What would it mean for Albany to win two-straight Albany Cup’s?  The last time Albany won two straight over Siena was 1971-72, 72-73 seasons.

Unranked AE It would mean a lot, though not as much as it it meant back in the 70′s (check back at unrankedae.com Monday for some investigative reporting on the rivalry during that era) and not as much as I would’ve thought last year. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to thrash Siena as much as the next guy, but last year’s win helped make the season. It was a tangible step in the right direction, vanquished some demons, and really helped the fan base re-embrace Timmy Ambrose as he helped will the team to victory. This year, Siena lacks the luster of the Franklin-Ubiles-Moore years and Albany’s showing the most potential we’ve seen in years. If all we have to hang out hat on is a 2 game winning streak vs. Siena, while we watch the AE conference finals, that won’t be OK.

SienaSaintsBlog Is this a turning point in the rivalry?

Unranked AE Is this? I’d like to think so, but it’s far too early to call. Siena’s clearly in a bit of a trough now and Albany’s peaking. Will Brown wins with superstars, but we only have Suero for 2 years, so that means you have to project us reloading beyond what should be a stellar senior crew next year. However, the tide is rising in the AE — the top 4 or 5 teams are scoring some talented recruits and bringing through some young ambitious coaches (see: BU as an exemplar for both), and I’d be surprised if there’s extended winning streaks on either side for the next few years.

SienaSaintsBlog  Scout Gerardo Suero for us. How much of a matchup problem will he be for Siena?

Unranked AE Suero rolled his ankle before the FDU, was questionable to play, was eating a whopper before the game, started the game on a bike — then came on to score a cool 23 points in 23 minutes. He’s just on a different level than anyone else on the team and he adds a completely different dimension. Like Timmy, he’s a head down, drive to the lane almost all-offense guy — but where as Tim if you beat him to the spot and you had the courage to stand in while a 5’10 ball of muscle crashed into you, you could frustrate him and get him into offensives. At 6’4, Suero has the height and athleticism to change directions in the air and in the lane quickly, avoid body contact and he picks up a ton of fouls. We’ve never had any who can get to the line at the rate he does. One on one, I doubt anybody can guard him for Siena, but if you can keep him from coming around screens with a full head of steam, you can slow him down and force him into bad decisions. He’s also a streaky shooter, so you can take your chance and give him the three.

SienaSaintsBlog Is Coach Brown on thin ice?

Unranked AE Yes. Being up 10 with 10 minutes to go on UConn game is still a highlight of my life… but it’s getting to be a long time ago. Outside of Jamar, Albany has lagged well behind UVM and BU during his tenure and the team has lacked identity  or consistency (i.e. tough defense, precise offense). If Albany stumbled this year in a contract year, tough decision for UA athletic department because Brown has clearly started recruiting more amenable talent to his system and he’ll have a senior loaded team coming up. He needs 10+ conference wins and at least a trip to AE semi-finals. Even then, with probably the best player in the league, that will leave a bad taste in fans mouth.

SienaSaintsBlog What are your keys to the game?

Unranked AE Before the atrocious offensive outing against St. Peter’s, Siena was actually ranked higher than Albany by KenPom’s mathematical wizardry, in large part because of Siena’s superior defense. For a six-man rotation, that’s fairly impressive — but also a huge vulnerability to foul trouble (which Siena has mostly avoided). Suero getting to the line has to be the key to breaking through Siena’s D, if that happens, I expect everything else to open. If not, it will require some timely shooting from Logan Aronhalt and Mike Black and probably an x-factor like JUCO transfer Jayson Guerrier (who scored 28 earlier this year). Albany has the guns to outscore Siena, but if they’re cold from outside, it could be a tight game.

SienaSaintsBlog What’s your prediction for this year’s Albany Cup?

Unranked AE Going back to Kenpom, these teams are near identical in the rankings (UA – 206, Siena – 212) so it’s a toss-up from that angle. That said, Albany comes in as the more confident team and with the best player. Black and Logan both hit clutch shots in last years game and I think at least one of them with put together a high level performance to accompany Suero — I’ll take Albany by 69-61 in a slightly less heart-attack inducing game than years past.

SienaSaintsBlog: Will Lamar Trice be in the lineup? How long is his suspension for and what are the specifics behind that?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: I don’t think Trice will be in the lineup. I think his suspension along with the suspension of 6-9 sophomore forward Kristijan Krajina will extend at least through this weekend. As I wrote on my blog there have been lots of different reports of timing of the suspensions floating around for the the on campus incident. But at this point, based on the best information I’m getting, I would be shocked to see either on Saturday night.

From The Mount Fan Blog

Speaking of the two suspended. We’d been hearing rumblings that both Krajina and Lamar Trice were in some sort of trouble that stemmed from an incident involving Pierre Brown, who left school for personal reasons. I’ve been told a lot of different things regarding suspension time periods. Some from a long time to others that it would be a one-game suspension. We’ll see.

SienaSaintsBlog:  What’s the key storyline for Mt. St. Mary’s entering this season?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: The big storyline much of the local media played up would be whether or not Lamar Trice would be able to step up and make better decisions on the floor and help this team in his senior season. For me, the storylines have always been whether or not Raven Barber would become the force that his ability allows down low and whether or not there would be enough consistency in the offense.

SienaSaintsBlog:  What are the expectations for this year for this team – to contend in the NEC?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: I think the NEC is about as good as it has been in recent years. LIU is pretty good, Robert Morris is off to a 2-0 start against 2 MAAC teams, both Quinnipiac and Central Connecticut have enough talent to win the league and Wagner is going (and has already shown with a double digit win at Princeton) that it is going to be very improved. The Mount won only 11 games last season, although they were 9-9 in the league. I would think that any sort of improvement on either of those numbers would be considered progress.

SienaSaintsBlog:  How much were the 29 turnovers in game one attributed to playing a superior team in Marquette than this team’s susceptibility to turnovers?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: That’s a tough one. I think turnovers could be an issue. And it’s definitely an area that the Mount struggled with last year. They were one of the nation’s worst in terms of turnovers/possession last season. It is definitely an area they are focusing on this year. Marquette is one of, if not the best team, the Mount will face this season. So it was expected that the turnovers would be elevated. But 29. That’s ridiculous

SienaSaintsBlog: Who do the Saints have to stop on the offensive end to have success?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: Assuming that Trice isn’t playing, I would think that Siena would need to focus its effort on Julian Norfleet, a sophomore guard, for the Mount. He averaged about 9.3 points per game a season ago and had 12 in the season opener. Siena fans might think of Marvin Jordan when then see Norfleet’s playing style. He has the ability to make the long range jumper but needs to do more inside the arc to become the complete player. 60 of his 103 field goals were from long distance last year.

SienaSaintsBlog: What are the keys to Mt St Mary’s to have success against Siena on Saturday?

Ryan Raffensperger/The Mount Fan Blog: I think the keys are going to be to get support from the Mount Maniacs, the Mount student section, and limit the turnovers. In addition, they have to get some inside production from Danny Thompson, Barber or Jacolby Wells if he is healthy. In addition, the Mount must do a good job defensively and limit Siena to one opportunity at the offensive end.

However, Siena Head Coach Mitch Buonaguro said at the Saints’ media day in October that he expects the Saints to have a successful season in 2011-12.

“We are expecting to have a very successful season.” Buonaguro said. “We always do that at Siena. What matters is what happens at the end of the game. Who wins the game, not about what people say about your team.”

Fans might call on Buonaguro’s statement as overly optimistic. While the Saints lose MAAC Player of the Year Ryan Rossiter and Clarence Jackson, two players that combined to score 43% of Siena’s points last season, new Saints will have to pick up the slack.

The idea of what might constitute a successful season might come with how success is defined. Success is something Saints fans have become accustomed to over their recent history. Since entering the MAAC, the Saints have won seven regular season titles and five tournament titles in 22 seasons. When Paul Hewitt came to Siena in 1997, he helped usher in an era in which the Saints have had a total of just four losing seasons in the past 14 years. During that time the Saints only had two straight losing seasons once, in 2003-04 and 2004-05 was the last time under Rob Lanier. Lanier was fired after the 2005 season, a 6-24 campaign.

The MAAC Preseason Awards Show placed the Saints at sixth in the conference in 2011-12 after finishing in seventh the year before.

So if success a season over .500, a deep MAAC tournament run, or it could be more abstract to what student-athletes develop into reliable scoring options or how the six-man incoming freshmen class develops. We asked all of our experts throughout the preseason how they would define success for the Saints in 2011-12.

Projected Standings from Kenpom ratings

(as of Monday November 7th – pre-season ratings * – does not account for Brookins out for season)

54 Iona

94 Fairfield
147 Rider
148 Loyola MD
194 Siena
230 Manhattan
242 St. Peter’s
245 Canisius
270 Niagara
307 Marist

College Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is due out any moment now, so what better way to get a MAAC preview than to chat with the writer that wrote out the MAAC preview for the book. We check in with Asher Fusco, who you can follow on twitter @AsherFusco. 

SienaSaintsBlog: What’s the biggest storyline entering this season for the MAAC?

Asher Fusco/Basketball Prospectus: For the second consecutive season, Siena’s absence from the MAAC’s upper echelon is a huge story because it opens things up for other teams and adds a bit of parity, relative to the way the conference race often shook out during Siena’s heyday. Iona and Fairfield stick out as the teams most likely to fill the void left by the Saints, but Loyola and Rider both have enough talent to contend as well. Aside from the parity in the top half of the conference, the college basketball world at large seems to be focusing on Iona as an intriguing preseason storyline, which makes complete sense given the amount of sheer talent Tim Cluess has amassed in conference preseason player of the year Mike Glover, Scott Machado, Kyle Smyth and Arizona transfer MoMo Jones. Iona, which could be the best team in the New York City area, high-major, mid-major or otherwise, will make a minimum of nine appearances on ESPN outlets this season, according to NYCBuckets.com.

Asher Fusco/Basketball Prospectus: The prevalence of big-name and potential impact transfers raises the overall talent level of the league, and actually could help the league. Three of the league’s top five teams stand to benefit in a big way from newly eligible transfers from high-major schools: Iona with MoMo Jones (Arizona), Fairfield with Rakim Sanders (Boston College) and Rider with Jeff Jones (Virginia). Meanwhile, less formidable teams like Siena and St. Peter’s will have transfers Brandon Walters and Chris Prescott, respectively, available to help out this season. Although Iona and Fairfield might benefit the most from the influx of impact transfers, the conference as a whole should benefit from the higher level of talent and the higher profile that comes with transfers like Jones and Sanders.

Asher Fusco/Basketball Prospectus: In the absence of Ryan Rossiter and Clarence Jackson, Siena will need to get scoring from somewhere and will need to replace one heck of a post player. It’s unlikely O.D. Anosike or Brandon Walters will step up and become the next Rossiter, but the onus is on them, especially Anosike, to at least play at a league-average level to stabilize a lineup that is low on “sure thing” guys. In the backcourt, the development of point guard Rakeem Brookins is a huge factor. Brookins showed flashes last year but looked every bit of the freshman he was, coughing up possessions at a high rate and converting on less than 37 percent of his two-point shots. For Siena to finish in the upper half of the conference, Brookins will need to take a big step forward.

Asher Fusco/Basketball Prospectus: Niagara has a chance to be the conference’s most improved team, based on the fact the Purple Eagles return a number of young contributors, chief among those point guard Marvin Jordan and wing Antoine Mason. Niagara’s chances of taking a step forward are also helped by the fact that the team was very bad last season. It’s unlikely the Purple Eagles will get off to another 1-11 start in conference play and finish with a -0.11 points per possession differential in the league.

Asher Fusco/Basketball Prospectus: I’m not sure if it would qualify as a disappointment given its fifth-place position in the MAAC Preseason Coaches’ Poll, but St. Peter’s will have a really tough time coming close to the 11-7 MAAC record and NCAA tournament appearance it mustered last season. The Peacocks last four starters to graduation, making the dismissal of starting wing Steven Samuels even tougher to swallow. John Dunne’s team was a great story last year, but 2012 could be ugly.

Follow Asher Fusco on twitter @AsherFusco.

SienaSaintsBlog: Who do you think needs to step up as a significant contributor in 2011-12 for the Saints to contend in the MAAC?

Ray Floriani/College Chalktalk: This season Siena needs several individuals to step up. Specifically Kyle Downey to shoot better from beyond the arc (he was 30% last season). Also Owen Wignot and OD Anosike can both rebound the ball. Neither scored in double figures, on the average, a year ago. Especially with Ryan Rossiter, a superb scorer, no longer in the fold one or both these players must become a point producing threat on a consistent basis.

SienaSaintsBlog: Were you surprised by Siena’s preseason ranking?

Ray Floriani/College Chalktalk: Not really surprised  by Siena’s rank in the MAAC poll. They had a falling to Earth last season and need a few questions answered. From a coaching point Mitch Buonoguro probably welcomes this prognostication with open arms. For one, the days of playing with a ‘bullseye on your back’ are past for now. Secondly, the ranking can serve as day to day motivation for his players. An added incentive to go out and prove the pollsters wrong.

SienaSaintsBlog: Who are you looking forward to seeing when you see the Saints this year?

Ray Floriani/College Chalktalk: Watching Siena, as mentioned, I will look to see if Wignot and/or Anosike emerged as scoring threats. And will the coaching staff take it on themselves to run plays to ensure their participation in the offense. Also looking to the continued development of Rakeem Brookins. Remember, the late Al McGuire always said, “the best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores.”

SienaSaintsBlog: What will be the Saints biggest weakness will be?

Ray Floriani/College Chalktalk: Siena’s biggest weakness now is uncertainty. They must replace Rossiter who accounted for over a quarter (25.6%) of their possessions per kenpom.com. Beside that they must shoot the ball better and limit turnovers. Last season (again, thanks Kenpom) the eFG mark was 45.7% and the turnover rate stood at 20.7%, both unacceptable figures. With a number of the younger players now a year older and experienced, those numbers should improve.

SienaSaintsBlog: Your MAAC top three – is it the top three and everyone else??

Ray Floriani/College Chalktalk: The conference stands as a race between Iona, Fairfield and Loyola. But that’s not etched in stone. It doesn’t mean this trio will run and hide from the remainder of the pack. This is the type league where a player going down or an unknown emerging can propel a club out of or into contention. The top three are a consensus. Rest assured they will be ‘watching their backs’ as in the wings are several teams ready to make a move should a major contender falter.

Basketball Prospectus’ Ken Pomeroy, whose thorough database of stats at Kenpom.com now has individual player stats dating back to the 2005-06 season, used his ‘similarity score’ to figure out how Rahkeem Brookins compares to players all across the nation.

Similarity score is a comparison based on a certain amount of stats used to make the comparison. Pomeroy’s tool finds the players with the stats most similar to the player – in this case Brookins. In his similarity score post in September, Pomeroy said he used the following 13 stats:

Team Rating (4x)
%Poss (4x)
Off Rating (3x)
OR% (3x)
DR% (3x)
FTRate (3x)
%Min (2x)
eFG% (2x)
Assist rate (2x)
TO rate (2x)
Block % (2x)
Steal % (1x)
Shot % (1x)
For more check resources here and here

The team rating allows the comparison to account for the chance that a small conference player doesn’t get compared to a Big Ten player. The unique part about the similarity score comparison is that a player like Brookins, in this case, his season is only compared against other freshmen. A score of 1000 is the highest similarity score you can get, which constitutes an identical match, but that is an extremely rare case.

A good reason to select Brookins to use as a test case to against other players is because Brookins is the returning Saint who played the most minutes last season (884). Brookins started 25 of the Siena’s 28 games and scored a career-high 18 points, including four three pointers, in the Saints loss at St. Bonaventure.

However, for Saints fans, we asked Pomeroy to a much more in-depth statistical query on Brookins 2010-11 numbers. We asked him to break it down against Siena players from the past six seasons and against MAAC freshmen and players from then as well.

Rahkeem Brookins comparisons using Similarity Score

Despite the fact Breeden left the program at the end of the season, it’s interesting that Breeden’s and Brookins seasons from 2011 were listed highly on the similarity score chart. However these comparisons are not the strongest that Brookins compares to.

“900 is pretty strong.” Pomeroy said of the best similarity scores to use when comparing players. “850 isn’t bad. Once you get around 800, the comparisons are shaky.”

Comparisons between Brookins and Moore appear to be somewhat strong, reaching the threshold of 850 or less, but in a search for stronger comparisons, instead of using Siena players, try and open it up to all the MAAC players in the last six seasons.

While Moore is still in the comparison, he is not the best comparison of MAAC freshmen when you compare him against other players. The large amount of shots Brookins took in 2011 were an important indicator towards his future development.

“The biggest thing Brookins has going for him is that he took a few shots last season,” Pomeroy said. “Now he just has to make more of them. But too many freshman are unable to do either, so at least Brookins has shown he is ahead of the curve in one skill.”

When comparing Brookins to other freshmen, John Templon who writes at Big Apple Buckets, @nybuckets on twitter, said Brookins compares interestingly to Marist’s R.J. Hall.

“One name that pops up is R.J. Hall of Marist in 2009,” Templon said. “Unfortunately he hasn’t been able to get his turnover problems under control and has ended up playing fewer minutes for the Red Foxes as the years go by.”

Hall (85.3) and Brookins (86.6) were close in personal offensive rating their freshman seasons according to Ken Pomeroy’s stats. Templon said to expect a different type of development for Brookins than what has happened to Hall in his sophomore and junior seasons.

“That’s not to say he’ll end up with such a fate, but it’s a possibility,” Templon said. “Hall didn’t quite have the steal rate of Brookins as a freshman, so there’s an indication that some latent athleticism is going to come out as Brookins develops.”

Hall’s development has been hindered by academic issues. Hall was ruled academically ineligible for the spring of 2011. Hall is a senior at Marist this year.

The strongest comparison appears to be Canisius sophomore Gaby Belardo from last season. Belardo transferred from South Florida where he played a limited role to play for the Griffs in 2011. Templon agreed on the strong comparison between Brookins and Belardo with his own set of numbers.

“They both had high steal, turnover and assist rates, while not being quite that effective on offense,” Templon said. “Of course one was a redshirt sophomore and the other a freshman.”

Pomeroy said it’s a strong comparison and the tool has done a good job comparing players who might not look exactly the same.

“Obviously, the tool isn’t perfect, and it’s going to miss on a few comparisons, and it may occasionally compare guys who don’t look much alike,” Pomeroy said. “Although, the last part is not really something that concerns me.”

Saints fans might be waiting for Brookins to make progressive improvements this season. Brookins hurt a disc in his back in practice and has not shown improvement since injuring it which could put him in doubt to start the regular season in the starting lineup.

However, if Brookins returns healthy this season Saints fans should expect a solid season. How much improvement might depend on a variety of factors. Pomeroy said Brookins’ free throw shooting is a positive indicator of future success.

“The main thing is that he should get to the free throw line more. That’s something that almost anyone with his low free throw rate as a freshman will improve upon,” Pomeroy said. “Given that he’s apparently a good free throw shooter, that’s encouraging. Whether he can control his turnover issues is another matter. Historically, that could go either way.”

Along those same lines, Templon said Brookins ability to get in the lane and draw contact will be important in year two.

“Brookins doesn’t need to make a high percentage of his two-point attempts, and chances are he never will,” Templon said. “but he needs the threat of going into the lane to keep defenders honest and to open up passing lanes to the wings.”

While also concerned about the tunrovers, Templon said Brookins has the ability to cut down on turnovers and improve as a core player.

“In terms of turnovers, that should come with time and another year of strength development,” Templon said. “If he can cut it down to around 2.5 or 2 per game and maintain his assist rate he’ll be one of the top point guards in the MAAC and give Siena a strong building block for the next few seasons.”

A big thank you to Ken Pomeroy at Basketball Prospectus for running these numbers for us. Pomeroy’s rating system is sure to surprise some pessimistic Siena fans with his rank of the Saints in the MAAC this year – of course to see that you’ll have to buy a subscription to his site kenpom.com (starting Nov. 7th) which is going to the subscription model this year. Also a thank you to John Templon of NYCBuckets.com for helping contribute to this story by running his own numbers and his opinions on Brookins’ game.